Nov 5th – Nov 11th -$22,577.59
Well, easy come easy go it seems. If this loss had come last week it would have been devastating. It’s funny how we perceive losses. I have written an article that will be posted tomorrow that has helped me deal with these horrendous weeks. Hopefully it might help you also, but I guess only if you have been doing this for a while and have made a profit (which is very few). The exact opposite to last week and from a position of hope, I now just feel empty again. Why I try and project forward when I have no control over the outcome is beyond me. As long as I continue to do the things I can control (getting best odds, recording everything, so on), then the results will look after themselves as they have done for the past 4 and a half years.
Sportpunter had an absolute shocker of a week. NBL by far the worst of a bad bunch, losing $14,000. The same thing happened in week 1 of the season and that was followed by weeks of great wins, hopefully I see a repeat. The NFL Totals made $1,700 and the NHL Totals lost $1,500. After a cracking first week in the NBA, it came back to earth with a $3,300 loss. On the rare occasions SP doesn’t perform well, the rest of the tipsters have a decent week. Apart from 1 or 2, that didn’t happen.
Gowi did well with $4,100 profit. Still waiting on my payout in the Golf which will be a very welcome addition. The other Golf tipsters lost $500 combined. PCG lost $100.
Onto the Football tipsters and I’m once again questioning why I decided to continue with TFA, another poor week with a $5,150 loss and that brings the season to well over $11,000 in the red. The only shining light is the Euro picks. At $500 stakes, it will only take a few good weeks to get that to break even, but the fact I’ll be cheering at break even is not a good sign. The last 2 seasons have been very different from the first one. I can’t remember the Winabob service having a winning week this year. A $400 loss this week brings his season loss to over $17,000. The shining light is Football Elite with back to back good weeks. This week $4,400 was added to the pot and I now sit on $6,400 profit. Once that hits $10,000 profit, then £100 will need to be paid. Football Value lost $1,000 and Football Investor lost $4,150 over the combo and Euro bets.
My little experiment with betting the opposite side when the odds move more then 20% continues to do well, with another $500 profit this week. Still early days and only 16 bets in totals, but I can see a time where I join popular services that make prices crash just so I can bet against them. My own personal picks had an absolute disaster week losing $3,300.
I was really hoping for this to be a +20k week and to be in a good position moving into the final month of the year, but that isn’t the case. Nothing I can do about it but continue on. No tipsters have reached the banks I set up for them, so right now there is no real concern. The roller-coaster continues on unabated and I’ll just cling on for dear life and hope that cliff never appears. Tune in tomorrow for a pretty decent article.
Total Loss for the week was $22,577.59
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $2,470,789.93
Profit/Loss: -$18,439.25
POT: -0.75%
Bets Placed: 3634
Won: 1315
Lost: 1739
Half Payout: 34
Refunded: 546
Winning %: 43.1%
Total profit per day: $329,085.59 / 1595 = $206.32
Total Turnover: $16,813,533.30
Total ROI: 1.96%
NBL Totals $21,960.00 $(11,126.69) -50.7%
week profit/loss: -3424.05
NBL Line $66,687.00 $18,360.84 27.5%
week profit/loss: -10452
NFL Totals $69,108.00 $12,139.71 17.6%
week profit/loss: 1733.68
NHL Totals $45,696.00 $11,100.98 24.3%
week profit/loss: -1533.43
NBA Totals $76,133.00 $13,018.50 17.1%
week profit/loss: 179.12
NBA H2H $50,465.00 $7,894.78 15.6%
week profit/loss: -3459.04
ClubGowi $309,053.00 $11,563.59 3.7%
week profit/loss: 4642.13
GOWI $9,451.00 $(2,360.00) -25.0%
week profit/loss: -519
PCG $143,467.00 $(3,863.71) -2.7%
week profit/loss: -128.50
Jason Kelly Golf $8,321.93 $(6,931.93) -83.3%
week profit/loss: -225
Betswot $8,313.00 $(6,558.00) -78.9%
week profit/loss: -300
FB Elite $47,250.00 $6,422.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 4430
Football Value $20,000.00 $(205.00) -1.0%
week profit/loss: -1000
TFA 21 $91,109.00 $(8,049.30) -8.8%
week profit/loss: -2500
TFA 41 $93,800.00 $(12,531.00) -13.4%
week profit/loss: -1945
6-21-31 $52,707.00 $205.72 0.4%
week profit/loss: -2000
D1-D6 $29,500.00 $910.00 3.1%
week profit/loss: -70
E1-E6 $18,740.00 $7,935.00 42.3%
week profit/loss: 1350
Mike Lindley $23,000.00 $(4,535.00) -19.7%
week profit/loss: -500
WINABOBATOO $105,000.00 $(12,503.00) -11.9%
week profit/loss: 125
FBI combo $52,500.00 $1,577.00 3.0%
week profit/loss: 820
FBI Euro $32,000.00 $(5,965.00) -18.6%
week profit/loss: -4970
Odds pushed out $8,000.00 $1,090.50 13.6%
week profit/loss: 490.50
Personal $8,516.00 $(3,203.64) -37.6%
week profit/loss: -3322
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Looking forward to reading the article tommorow. After following you and sport punter for a while now I decided to finally subscribe this week….35% of my bank gone first week and a feeling that I won’t claw it back anytime soon. I know it’s a long term thing but sometimes you just need to have a rant.
Hey Shayne, yep a rant can be helpful, but how did you lose 35% of your bank? Which models are you following? Did you set your banks correctly?
I’ll take a look at the spreadsheet when I get home. It wasn’t 35% yesterday but after a few bad results today I figured it would be around that mark. Following nba, nbl, nfl, nhl. Mind you I joined a day after Some huge results (few over 20%roi). Only betting the bigger overlays (which all seem to be getting beaten) still haven’t found a sweet spot on the Kelly factor, what do u use.
My Kelly is pointless for anyone else but me. Jonno wrote an article the other day which might help, check out his site. What you need to do is work out your bank for each model, then turn that into 50-100 units (depending on your risk tolerance) and work out what 1 unit is. So lets say you like risk and your bank for NFL is $20,000. That means 1 unit will be $400. Now work backwards, put 20k in as your bank and adjust the kelly until the average bet size is around $400.
I do still have 1 unders bet yet that might claw something back on.?i know you probably have better things to do then listen to me whine but do you mind if I shoot you an email to check where I have gone wrong this week
email me, but dont expect a quick reply.. Jonno should be the one helping you if you just paid a heap for his service.
Thanks Steve, I’ll take a closer look tonight and see what I am doing. The way you explained it in units makes much more sense to me
Hi Steve,
I am assuming, as you have the SP NBA model, that you’re not following any of the two SBC NBA tipsters – Andre Gomes and George Dempsey? I’ve taken the plunge and am following Andre for the season as I make a foray into sports betting (I was too late to sign up for Dempsey’s) I am hopeful I can make 5%. POT which would be great considering bet volume. Easily accessible lines thus far.
Aaron.
Hey Aaron,
Nope, not following them. I have SP and PCG for NBA. Great to hear you can get the lines and odds. Good luck with it this season. The American sports have a lot of upside to them if you can find a great tipster.