Feb 20th – Feb 26th +$8,145.82
A nice return this week with the usual amount of big bets just missing. With just 1 or 2 results actually going my way I would have been well back in the black. FB Elite had some high priced home teams that managed to draw. If they had won then I would be break even right now. The other big bet was on Espanyol, with $1875 on them at $9.5. They gave away a penalty at the end of the first half and for the entire second half were playing against 10 men, but couldn’t score. The week these bets all hit and I could potentially have a +$30-50k week. I just need to keep plugging away and hope for that week.
Even with those close losses, this week was a good one with $8,000 profit.
ATP made $1,700 profit and NBL $3,000.
There is a bit of talk in last weeks comments section about XX Draws and how Cassini is recording his prices. I have written to him about this and I’m sure he will get back to me. The major issue is that he is recording his odds at BF prices but is not taking commission into account. I have also compared my odds to the recorded ones and am getting a minimum of at least 10c less. I’m sure Cassini will be writing an article about it soon.
Onto the Soccer results and I’ll start with the XX Draws, A $2,000 loss with 1 more game to play over the 4 systems. FB Elite keeps winning on Saturday nights and giving it all back and more on the Sunday night, with 1 game outstanding, the loss this week was $1,400. Combo Football Investor made a small $700 profit and Skeeve lost $1,600. The Skeeve result will be very different then that recorded by the tipster, as he released a multi bet just before a game and as I am in Australia, I was asleep. That saved me $1,600 and allowed me to place a suggested later bet which won. The real loss this week should have been $4,000, so I am thanking my sleep patterns right now. TFA Established continues it’s amazing run with $6,600 profit and the Euro bets continue to tread water with $900 profit.
So another solid return and with only 2 days left in February, it looks like being a +$20,000 month. That is just the average of what I expect each month. So I will be hoping for the same return in March, which should hopefully see me back in the black for the year.
Total profit for the week was $8,145.82
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $2,388,610.91
Profit/Loss: $(13,578.82)
POT: -0.57%
Bets Placed: 3,822
Won: 1,531
Lost: 2,192
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 97
Winning %: 41.1%
Profit per day: $102,504.90 / 972 = $105.45
ATP – SP $310,393.00 $2,109.97 0.7%
week profit/loss: 1737.52
NBL Totals $97,584.00 $(5,116.76) -5.2%
week profit/loss: -120
NBL Line $61,642.00 $(1,107.47) -1.8%
week profit/loss: 3262.50
XX Draws $50,500.00 $(7,695.00) -15.2%
week profit/loss: -1780
XX Draws Under $50,500.00 $(5,283.00) -10.5%
week profit/loss: -1602
XX Extended $105,500.00 $11,891.00 11.3%
week profit/loss: 2730
XX Extended Under $105,500.00 $648.00 0.6%
week profit/loss: -1297.50
FB Elite $190,819.00 $(24,254.97) -12.7%
week profit/loss: -1440
Skeeve $118,767.00 $(11,441.64) -9.6%
week profit/loss: -1612.20
Combo FI $174,450.00 $20,658.50 11.8%
week profit/loss: 745
6-22 $57,750.00 $2,024.25 3.5%
week profit/loss: 712.50
7-21 $87,485.00 $6,710.50 7.7%
week profit/loss: 1537.50
7-22 $38,685.00 $35.25 0.1%
week profit/loss: 1462.50
8-21 $42,500.00 $4,232.88 10.0%
week profit/loss: 1462.50
8-22 $25,513.00 $(219.62) -0.9%
week profit/loss: 1462.50
E1-E7 $48,000.00 $(3,591.74) -7.5%
week profit/loss: -435
E2-E6 $51,750.00 $5,434.89 10.5%
week profit/loss: 1567.50
E2-E7 $25,875.00 $875.26 3.4%
week profit/loss: 315
E3-E6 $21,375.00 $2,170.50 10.2%
week profit/loss: -281.25
E3-E7 $12,375.00 $517.50 4.2%
week profit/loss: -281.25
Well done on a decent week 🙂
Re XX Draws – My feelings are that it works better as a PC reduction system than for straight up betting. Just think the edge is quite small relative to the average odds you have to bet at. But I am raising this as a question rather than providing an answer.
Joseph Buchdahl has a book out on evaluating selection systems, I have ordered it and am awaiting delivery.
At the end of the day as you know, this game is all about opinions!
BOL.
Hi,
first, congrats for your blog, i really enjoy reading it every week.
I have some questions about a service that you are using and i think maybe you can help me.
I hesitate to subscribe to Sportpunter AFL. Could you please tell me how much are the pinnacle limits? I do not have any other bookmakers accounts (because of restrictions etc.) so i have no other choice than to play on pinnacle.
Are the odds moving fast after the release of the tips? Or can i take the bets the day tomorrow (for example)?
thank you in advance for your help,
Peleman
Hi Peleman,
My pinnicle limits are usually $420 and then $700 later in the week, and when the max is bet the prices move quickly. I would place only 10% of AFL bets at Pinnacle.
I believe the odds usually do move back a bit the day after, but this new season has a player based model so the bet’s won’t come out until the day of the game.
If your betting under $700 then I would say go for it as the model is amazing, but if you are likely to bet much more and only have Pinny then sadly it’s probably not worth the frustration.
Hope this helps
Steve
Hi Steve,
Thanks for the answers.
Last question, what bookmakers do you recommend to follow the AFL please (Without Pinnacle)?
Thanks again for your help,
Peleman
I go through all of them and pick the one with the best line and odds. A few will be quick to limit you.
Sportingbet, Sportsbet, Lux, Tab, Tatts, betstar, unibet.
If possible open accounts at them all.
thank you so much for your help steve !
Peleman
No problem Peleman.
Good luck with your AFL betting if you decide to follow it. It is my favorite model by far.