Dec 8th – Dec 14th

A major milestone reached this week. Over $1 million bet in 5 and a half months. This post will break down every sport I have bet on and their results.

Baseball
Baseball was the first sport I started betting on the 1st of July when I started all this. I believe I was lucky that it had such a great season and helped grow my bank quickly early on. My bank size was $50,000 with a 1/10th kelly. Way too high and if the model had done poorly I’m sure this site wouldn’t be here today. What can i say, i was young and dumb, but got lucky.

H2H bet: $198,258.01
Profit: $6,770.36
POT: 3.4%

Totals bet: $234,248.00
Profit: $19,824.86
POT: 8.5%

Combined: $432,506.01
Profit: $26,595.22
POT: 6.15%

AFL
AFL has always been one of the strongest models and this season was no different, like baseball I missed half the season as I didn’t start till July. I will be upping my kelly next year for it and am confident it can carry on its amazing run. AFL kelly this year was 1/10th with a 50k bank

H2H bet: $16,787.00
Profit: $3,912.87
POT: 23.3%

Line bet: $25,163.00
Profit: $4,341.03
POT: 17.3%

Combined: $41,950.00
Profit: $8,253.90
POT: 19.68%

NRL
Shocking year betting only on dogs. Will have to re-evaluate next season. Will probably still bet but with a reduced kelly

Total bet: $10,205.00
Loss: $(4,425.41)
POT: -43.4%

NFL
Only placed 2 bets for the season as could not be bothered getting up at 4am.

Total bet: $2,493.00
Loss: $(1,148.78)
POT: 46.1%

College Basketball (NCAA)
Stopped betting this after a month and a bit of massive line moves and pathetic odds. The results history could not be matched and after losing a large chunk of my profits I was happy to stop betting and haven’t missed it at all.

Total bet: $26,975.00
Loss: $(4,557.77)
POT: -16.9%

Soccer
I’ve had some weak moments with Soccer and have contemplated stopping betting on it as the time commitment and profit were not feeling so good. I’m really glad I have stuck with it. I have a system in place that cuts down my bets and now do not spend more then an hour on the busy soccer days of Saturday and Sunday. This has been a star performer for me, with a high turnover and a nice overall POT of around 5%. I cant ask for more then that.

H2H bet: $100,488.00
Profit: $2,959.11
POT: 2.9%

Totals Over bet: $52,226.00
Profit: $6,502.11
POT: 12.4%

Totals Under bet: $121,368.00
Profit: $4,508.99
POT: 3.7%

Combined: $274,082.00
Profit: $13,970.21
POT: 5.1%

Tennis
I started Tennis with just a few months left in the season. ATP has not done well, but the new updated WTA model has performed impressively. Both had banks of 50k and Kellys of 1/25th. I will increase this in the new year.

ATP bet: $32,197.00
Loss: $(1,693.50)
POT: -5.3%

WTA bet: $23,557.00
Profit: $4,145.69
POT: 17.6%

Combined: $55,754.00
Profit: $2,452.19
POT: 4.4%

NHL
From past performance i decided to only follow totals this season. It started poorly and looked like it was going to be a bad year, but then about 2 months ago it changed and has consistently made profit. 50k and 1/10th Kelly.

Total bet: $40,572.00
Profit: $2,603.96
POT: 6.4%

NBL
My biggest disappointment this year, last seasons was amazing and i thought it would continue, early success made me even more certain and i guess that is why i cling to the hope it will still turn around even though it has given me my biggest loss out of every single sport I am following. I really should cut my losses but just can’t seem to hold out hope for a turnaround. 50k bank and 1/12th Kelly

H2H bet: $22,959.00
Loss: $(3,930.34)
POT: -17.1%

Totals bet: $25,871.00
Loss: $(1,919.68)
POT: -7.4%

Combined: $48,830.00
Loss: $(5,850.02)
POT: -11.98%

NBA
One of my favourite sports and a new model, again, being reckless i dived straight in with a very high Kelly and after a bad first week was in bad shape, I changed to a Kelly i was more comfortable with and now wish I had kept the original Kelly as it has performed great. I stopped betting the Line at the start of December as it just didn’t seem profitable, but I continue to be Totals which has been doing very well. 50k bank 1/30th Kelly.

Line bet: $26,303.00
Loss: $(1,910.74)
POT: -7.3%

Totals bet: $57,090.00
Profit: $5,126.91
POT: 9.0%

Combined: $83,393.00
Profit: $3,216.17
POT: 3.86%

Horse Racing
Following a new tipster and it started badly. The past two weeks have seen some nice wins and now the profit is looking very healthy.

Total bet: $13,398.00
Profit: $3,019.40
POT: 22.5%

Kiwi Basketball
Kiwi’s past record talks for itself and I decided to also follow his tips this year, I’m so glad i did.

Total bet: $6,050.00
Profit: $1,662.00
POT: 27.5%

Well that’s about it for my past 5 and a bit months. It’s been quite a ride. If you have any questions just post them in the comments and I’ll be happy to answer them.

Total profit for the week was $2081

Stats

Total bet amount: $1,036,208.01
Profit/Loss: $45,791.07
POT: 4.4%

Bets Placed: 2,581
Won: 1,138
Lost: 1,353
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 89
Winning %: 45.7%

Profit per day: 45,791.07 / 167 = $274

Profit/Loss Graph:

Click on graph for large view