May 22nd – May 28th -$7,281.68
A new country, but another one of those weeks.
That’s right, I’m now living in Milan. I thought it was about time to take this show on the road. If you’ve been a long time reader then you will know about my love of travelling. The last big trip I did, I had a trusty monkey placing my bets, this time it’s all me. I thought with the soccer season ending, now was a perfect time to really give travelling and betting a go. The fact that it is getting cold in Australia and warm in Europe also helped with my decision. For the next few months I am only betting on Tennis, MLB, AFL, and NRL. Tennis takes up 20 minutes a day, MLB 10 minutes, AFL an hour a week and NRL 30 minutes a week. That’s a total of 5 hours a week for the next 3 months.
My travel plans include a few months in Milan, London, New York and various US cities. All up 6 months of chasing the sun. Italy has already thrown up a few issues, with a filter in place to not allow betting on sites that are not licensed in the country. Lucky I was prepared via a VPN and logmein.
This week was another very frustrating one, the slow weekly climb happened again and on Friday night I went to bed sitting at $70,000 profit for the year. My hopes were high that the last month was just a blip and I was back to my winning ways. I woke up to the worst MLB day in history and massive losses in the AFL. By the end of Saturday I was back at $58,000. So very frustrating.
The AFL managed to make up for most of the Saturday losses and ended up down just $1,500 for the week. Tennis lost the same amount. Onthepunt NRL has had a bad start to the season and lost another $1,100 this week. After losing $7,000 in one day, the MLB model almost recouped all those losses, ending the week with a loss of $400. XX Draws lost a whopping $4,000 and to be honest, I’ll be glad to see the season end. I will be doing a write up on each soccer model when the season has ended this weekend. FB Elite went 1 from 2 to be the only model in profit with a $1,300 gain.
This week we have the French Open so a large number of bets. But it is also inter-league in the MLB, so no bets until Saturday. The only other bets will come from the AFL, NRL and possibly FB Elite and XX Draws.
Hoping for a pickup in results, but if this year has taught me anything, it’s that I have no say over when and where the profits will come from.
Ciao
Total loss for the week was $7,281.68
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,621,631.91
Profit/Loss: $53,407.09
POT: 1.47%
Bets Placed: 5,668
Won: 2,302
Lost: 3,210
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 153
Winning %: 41.8%
Profit per day: $169,490.81 / 1063 = $159.44
AFL H2H – SP $69,490.00 $15,265.93 22.0%
week profit/loss: 468.75
AFL Line – SP $368,044.00 $8,017.15 2.2%
week profit/loss: -2030.50
ATP – SP $443,541.00 $9,039.37 2.0%
week profit/loss: -1508.72
OTP NRL $30,000.00 $(4,098.25) -13.7%
week profit/loss: -1067.50
MLB H2H $91,239.00 $14,318.98 15.7%
week profit/loss: -2193.97
MLB Totals $151,466.00 $330.22 0.2%
week profit/loss: 1775.76
XX Draws $70,000.00 $(11,637.50) -16.6%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Draws Under $70,000.00 $(3,510.00) -5.0%
week profit/loss: -1000
XX Extended $154,500.00 $12,071.00 7.8%
week profit/loss: -1530
XX Extended Under $154,194.00 $2,195.00 1.4%
week profit/loss: -545.50
FB Elite $298,819.00 $(29,878.97) -10.0%
week profit/loss: 1320
Hey
I hope you are enjoying Italy, im sure you are fascinated watching the water drain in the other direction.
Anyhow, just looking back over your year on the footy – what are your thoughts on the Football Analyst, when you hit those very high profits and then variance kicked in and you have given most of it back – did you consider to reduce stakes at this point?
The other thing I was thinking of was that other system backers or layers when they go for a long winning run then start doing the opposite selections for a few days/weeks before reverting back to the original system.
Just a thought. Keep up the blogging and be lucky!
Varience kicked in on the Euro bets. The person who runs the model said from mid season that he thought the Euro model was no good, and he is going to look at it again over the summer. I think I will follow it again with lower stakes or not at all this coming season. The UK models are amazing though, will be following more of them next season.
I would never reduce stakes after a good run, I think that’s very counter intuitive, as you can see by my graph, we can never tell when a good run will start or end. By flat betting you get a better average return then trying to guess winning and losing streaks. Just like the stock market, you can’t time the market.
The only thing I do different is with the AFL model, I believe it is a very strong model and as I bet mostly 50/50 odds (line bets), I am using a moving bank with that model.