So another week of repeating patterns. ATP and MLB do well during the week and on Friday night I was at a mates Bucks night and as the first AFL bet of the week and the only NRL bet of the week won, my total profit pushed over the $80,000 mark. I went to bed after placing MLB bets and then the usual Saturday happened. This time, most of the carnage was due to the AFL model. I am using moving banks this year and this was the first week they had moved. They will be back at the start after this past week. Then the soccer rolled on and things went poorly there too. All up Saturday lost over $15,000. For the past month, the profit has been hovering around this 65-80k area. Still no idea if it will hit 0 or 100k first.
AFL had a very poor week, in total losing close to $8,000. It hasn’t been the start I was hoping for, but the faith in Jonno’s modelling skills are still there and it’s only a matter of time before these bets start clicking into gear. The other model of Jonno’s I love is the ATP one, another $2,600 profit this week on the clay. The last Sportpunter model I am following is Crdogs MLB model. I am still having the same reservations I had last year. The prices are available when the bets are released, but someone must have a bot betting these straight away, as I am super quick but always miss the bets before they move. I am having to take 5cent worse odds on every bet, and I’m not sure I can profit long term if this is the case. If anyone knows how to create a simple bot that can take data from an excel sheet and place bets at Pinnacle then I would love to talk to you. MLB started the week well before some massive losing days on the weekend. It ended the week with a $700 loss.
OTP NRL had the one bet for a $900 win.
XX Draws has been having a nice run lately and added $3,550, Combo FI broke even, and a small profit was achieved by TFA Established and Euro. FB Elite once again cost me a fair bit. These were harsh results as Fulham had a player sent off in the 12th minute and still looked the better team and Catania allowing an equaliser in the 94th minute, but really, I’m not sure if his edge is there anymore. I will be giving it one more season at half stakes to see if he can make a comeback, Sadly the 2 and a bit years I have been following FB Elite has resulted in over $20,000 lost.
I seem to have done well when I was predicting my weekly results, so this week I will go with $11,000 profit.
Total loss for the week was $4,005.67
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $3,138,644.91
Profit/Loss: $67,993.94
POT: 2.17%
Bets Placed: 4,925
Won: 2,012
Lost: 2,777
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 134
Winning %: 42.0%
Profit per day: $184,077.66 / 1028 = $179.06
AFL H2H – SP $51,982.00 $8,593.53 16.5%
week profit/loss: -715.30
AFL Line – SP $275,132.00 $(10,038.39) -3.6%
week profit/loss: -7134.18
ATP – SP $387,938.00 $12,180.71 3.1%
week profit/loss: 2613.74
OTP NRL $16,500.00 $(3,061.50) -18.6%
week profit/loss: 910
MLB H2H $26,857.00 $1,093.33 4.1%
week profit/loss: -18.05
MLB Totals $56,884.00 $4,551.57 8.0%
week profit/loss: -653.38
XX Draws $62,000.00 $(10,780.00) -17.4%
week profit/loss: 1300
XX Draws Under $62,000.00 $(2,968.50) -4.8%
week profit/loss: -170
XX Extended $133,500.00 $16,796.00 12.6%
week profit/loss: 1040
XX Extended Under $133,194.00 $2,417.00 1.8%
week profit/loss: 1395.50
FB Elite $274,819.00 $(20,154.97) -7.3%
week profit/loss: -3040
Skeeve $148,919.00 $(1,833.64) -1.2%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $228,729.00 $20,335.50 8.9%
week profit/loss: 83.50
6-22 $71,815.00 $7,474.25 10.4%
week profit/loss: 825
7-21 $115,610.00 $9,970.75 8.6%
week profit/loss: 75
7-22 $48,435.00 $5,375.25 11.1%
week profit/loss: 825
8-21 $55,625.00 $7,761.63 14.0%
week profit/loss: 750
8-22 $31,138.00 $1,959.13 6.3%
week profit/loss: 750
E1-E7 $65,705.00 $3,562.76 5.4%
week profit/loss: 532.50
E2-E6 $76,912.00 $6,178.64 8.0%
week profit/loss: -1875
E2-E7 $38,625.00 $9,261.01 24.0%
week profit/loss: -375
E3-E6 $28,500.00 $2,050.50 7.2%
week profit/loss: -1125
E3-E7 $15,750.00 $4,147.50 26.3%
week profit/loss: 0