Apr 2nd – Apr 8th +$875.57

What a week. I had a good laugh with my April Fools joke, a massive milestone was reached and pretty much ended right back where I started. With all sports currently on at the same time, my daily swings are massive and it’s a real roller-coaster of emotions. If someone invented a device that wouldn’t allow me to see sports scores until the end of the week I would pay handsomely for it.

At 6:50 pm AEDT I hit $100,000 profit in a season for the first time ever. A big moment for me and I know how fleeting these moments are so I took a moment for a smile and then received a high 5. I am totally against high 5s in general but this one felt pretty good. The euphoria lasted a whole 30 minutes as my next big bet lost and I was back into the 90’s. That was followed up with more losses to take me back to pretty much where I started the week. Ahh, the life of a gambler, I don’t recommend it.

If you know me (and you should after 4 years of bleeding on this blog) then you know when I set my mind to something I make sure I do it right and make it perfect. As I have decided to produce an ebook, I am going to make sure it is the best thing ever written in this field. Over the coming months I’ll be asking for your feedback and to fill in some surveys so I can create something of immense value to anyone who has ever placed a bet. This week I signed up to the Zero to Launch course, which is a $2,500 online course (I have never signed up to anything online before apart from tipsters), but I feel this will help me produce the best product I can. I will invest not only money but my time into this thing. I see at least 2 full months needed just to write the initial draft and in that time I will not be taking on any freelance or consulting work which alone will cost me over $15,000. I just hope I can create something that you all love. It will be an interesting experience, it will be the first time I have sold anything and I will be up for criticism just like all these tipsters are once they start taking money for a service.

Talking about criticising tipsters and Stewboss made a comment on a post which deserves a response. I asked on the blog if I was being too harsh recently and received this reply.

I tweeted earlier today that I was going to come on here and write about balance and so here it is…

I feel that the musings on here are overly negative, especially when it comes to football (I refuse to call it soccer). Take today’s post as an example….

“Ok, so those soccer systems made a loss, lets look at the others. FB Elite lost 6 from 7 and the 7th was a lucky 90th minute goal. $3,360 lost this week and back to break even. Combo Football Investorturned the recent poor run around with $2,670 profit and ClubGOWIadded $2,100.”

One sentence about Football Investor and that manages to combine a back-handed compliment with a negative reference to the recent bad run. What bad run is that? I think the Combo system has had one losing week in the last two months!!

That’s some bad run Steve!!

Contrast this with 11 whole paragraphs about Skeeve and TFA..

See what I mean about balance?

Not all of the services / models / sports will make money all of the time but it does seem like Football receives a regular bashing on here.

What happens when the inevitable losing run hits the Combo system? Can we look forward to an increase in column inches then?

Don’t get me wrong, this is a great blog. One of the best on the net but like I said before, the balance is skewed on the negative side.

Rant Over!

Stewboss

Now, while he is right that the blog has gotten more negative recently I feel that it’s very easy for these Tipsters to say one thing and do the exact opposite. While I am being told that the losing runs get more coverage and the winning runs barely anything, the exact opposite happens with Tipsters emails. A bad week is followed by a short email saying something along the lines of “bad week, lets move on quickly”, while the good weeks receive longer emails explaining how well they went. This is evident from every single tipster. As I keep repeating time and time again, this blog is not here for Tipsters, yes they benefit from extra signups and all the free advertising, but the blog is here for me and people who already do or are thinking about joining a service. I am very harsh when there is a bad run, but when a Tipster is doing well I am also the one who shines a light on the service and provides them with new subscribers. I do respect the tipsters I follow but will never pander to them. That’s what sets me apart from almost all other bloggers in this niche.

Another thought I had this week was that there should be a tipping service based entirely on the weather, someone who can read a weather chart could potentially make a killing. I would subscribe to a service which did this. I have seen numerous examples over the past few months in regards to the AFL and the total line. It is clear a few days in advance that there will be rain (and a lot of it) and the total points for the matches barely move. All these matches go well under. The same can be done with trading the cricket, if a shower is about to come over the draw price will go out when it starts to rain and the players are pulled off the field. I’m sure this also has an impact on Football games and any other sport played outdoors.

Let’s quickly gloss over the results this week as it was a break even week and I’ve wasted long enough typing.

ATP finally started again last night and made $1,400. For all the distraught AFL caused me this week it ended down just $540. I tuned into the last 5 minutes of my first ever Rugby game and had a big bet on the underdog, they had the match with 5 seconds to go and lost the ball, resulting in the other team scoring and tying the game. Cost me a fortune but just shows once again why I should never ever ever watch games. The NRL made $1,350, The NHL lost $2,200 and the NBL broke even and has only 1 or 2 games left in the season. The Golf lost $700.

Onto Soccer and we had a 100% week for Skeeve. $10,000 profit. Last two weeks have been really good and with a replica for the last few rounds, the potential is there to make a decent profit for the year. ClubGOWI also made $4,000 and I am taking more non red type bets with this service. These can be found by reading the detailed analysis that is sent in each email. That means that my numbers might not exactly replicate those of the service, as Keith doesn’t want his service to be seen as a tipping service, I see no problem with posting my personal results. TFA continues its killer season and I’m not sure if Graeme will be around next season, his emails seem to suggest that it is all up to the last few weeks results, in my opinion this is pretty silly. TFA lost a further $3,200 this week. Combo Football Investor also lost $2,700 and is on a bit of a draw-down. Football Elite was by far the worst performer of the week with all bets losing for a $6,000 loss.

I once again want to thank all the readers who commented on the blog or sent me emails (even the ones calling me an idiot for quitting). Some of the comments really made me feel special. Thank you all.

Total profit for the week was $875.57

Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,299,454.84
Profit/Loss: $94,828.55
POT: 2.87%
Bets Placed: 5,598
Won: 2026
Lost: 3287
Half Payout: 30
Refunded: 255
Winning %: 38.1%
Total profit per day: $282,350.64 / 1378 = $204.89
Total Turnover: $13,049,284.37
Total ROI: 2.16%

ATP – SP $371,114.00 $7,784.24 2.1%
week profit/loss: 1392.69

AFL H2H – SP $54,118.00 $9,526.60 17.6%
week profit/loss: -879.80

AFL Line – SP $324,891.00 $43,300.61 13.3%
week profit/loss: 340.68

Rugby SP $26,893.00 $15,622.12 58.1%
week profit/loss: -580

NRL SP $18,269.00 $8,569.65 46.9%
week profit/loss: 1368.50

FB Elite $240,000.00 $(1,011.00) -0.4%
week profit/loss: -6000

Skeeve $123,748.00 $4,633.80 3.7%
week profit/loss: 10060.20

Combo FI $133,215.00 $8,897.38 6.7%
week profit/loss: -2755

TFA $603,876.00 $(55,073.08) -9.12%
week profit/loss: -3191.50

ClubGowi $245,423.00 $10,043.94 4.1%
week profit/loss: 4010.04

NP Win $23,310.84 $(912.34) -3.9%
week profit/loss: -700

NHL Totals $278,407.00 $7,098.94 2.5%
week profit/loss: -2214.74

NBL Totals $101,637.00 $29,179.14 28.7%
week profit/loss: 739.50

NBL Line $105,187.00 $23,074.83 21.9%
week profit/loss: -715