Apr 30th – May 6th +$16,706.84
An early update as I’ll be at a conference in Sydney all day tomorrow. 2 straight months of profitable weeks once again brings the yearly profit to a level I could never have imagined. At the moment this run is almost fairy-tail like. This is Frozen sportsbetting style. I seem to have a case of Déjà vu week in and week out with a poor start followed by a strong finish (stop it to all those with dirty minds). I won’t complain if this is the pattern that becomes the norm. A real milestone week as I hit $150,000 profit.
I’ll be sending these weekly updates out to the mailing list before posting on the site from next week, so if you haven’t already, then sign up to the mailing list.
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We start as always with the Sportpunter models. ATP made a huge comeback after its worst week ever with a positive $7,000 week. The AFL model once again produced the goods with $4,400 while the Rugby lost $30 and the NRL had a week off.
As is customary for me, I had competing bets in the soccer this week and choose wrong on most occasions. FB Elite ended up $2,700, but it should have been $5,000 but I had placed a ClubGOWI bet before the Elite one. There was one that went my way, Skeeve had a bet that was the opposite of GOWI and when GOWI released this pushed the Skeeve bets price 28% higher and I took that. There was another Skeeve bet midweek but it went well below the minimum advised odds and never recovered. The single Skeeve bet netted me $1,800 profit. Combo FI made $600 and TFA had back to back winning weeks with a further $2,600 profit. ClubGOWI had a standout week with $3,300 profit and his unofficial selections ended down $600, but I was one goal away from a 18-1 multi. The very strong finish to the Soccer season has seen my loss come in from over $60,000 to now just a touch over $21,000.
Nics picks lost his customary $800 and my two new models for American sports lost $2,700 and $1,600.
I keep reminding myself to enjoy this run as it is unprecedented. It is well within the 2-5% range I expect per season but at the higher end. With 2 months left I have no idea where we will end up, do I dare dream of a $200,000 season? Why not. Until next week.
Total profit for the week was $16,706.84
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,730,028.84
Profit/Loss: $150,266.61
POT: 4.03%
Bets Placed: 6,327
Won: 2316
Lost: 3687
Half Payout: 37
Refunded: 287
Winning %: 38.6%
Total profit per day: $337,788.70/ 1406 = $240.24
Total Turnover: $13,479,858.37
Total ROI: 2.51%
ATP – SP $437,311.00 $7,846.73 1.8%
week profit/loss: 7034.28
AFL H2H – SP $66,864.00 $15,793.60 23.6%
week profit/loss: -729.50
AFL Line – SP $419,857.00 $79,824.65 19.0%
week profit/loss: 5171.54
Rugby SP $36,897.00 $16,654.52 45.1%
week profit/loss: -31.50
NRL SP $29,348.00 $8,888.16 30.3%
week profit/loss: 0
FB Elite $262,833.00 $(2,751.30) -1.0%
week profit/loss: 2709.70
Skeeve $141,107.00 $3,122.80 2.2%
week profit/loss: 1788
Combo FI $146,715.00 $10,716.38 7.3%
week profit/loss: 620
TFA $683,376.00 $(36,055.58) -5.27%
week profit/loss: 2597.50
ClubGowi $293,793.00 $13,740.11 4.7%
week profit/loss: 3291.97
GOWI $1,715.00 $(1,715.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -600
NP Win $26,285.84 $(3,887.34) -14.8%
week profit/loss: -800
MLB $34,000.00 $(2,688.00) -7.9%
week profit/loss: -2730.50
PCG $12,075.00 $(1,614.75) -13.4%
week profit/loss: -1614.75
Great site Steve and pleased to see your run continue.
A quick question though – your results this week weren’t that consistent with the SP picks from what I can tell. Are you simply blindly following the SP selections or adding in your own thoughts?
For example – SP’s AFL suggested line bets made a small loss this week, yet you are showing a
$4,400 profit betting them. Likewise the SP ATP selections showed a small loss, yet you had a very profitable week. I’m just struggling to reconcile your performance with SP’s performance over the same periods.
Cheers and keep up the good work.
My week would not be the same as the Sportpunter week as I use Tuesday as my starting point purely because that was the day I started 4 years ago. The majority of Tennis bets are placed in the first round on Mondays.
In regards to AFL are you looking at the team based or player based models, he has two separate models and I use the player based one.
Hey Steve,
Came across your blog from the link on the Green All Over blog and am finding reading through really interesting.
I currently run a podcast call Betcast which up to now has focused mainly on trading sports but I’d love to get your on for an interview to discuss building a betting portfolio like you have.
Would be something really unique and would make for a great show. Especially given your specialist knowledge and experience.
Shows usually last around 20 minutes and are done over Skype. I’ can send over the main questions before the show starts if you agree to come on with me.
Would love to have you on.
Let me know if you could spare the time,
Thanks
David
david(at)bettingwebsites(dot)org
I’ll email you David
Aha. I was referring to the team based one. I can now see the difference. Thanks for the response.
Hi Steve.
Just trying to work out if the Rugby SP and the NRL SP are the currently free and player based models at Jonno’s ?
Yes they are.