If I thought last week was bad, I had no idea how bad it could really get.
When the AFL model came out with its picks, I knew something was wrong, there were massive bets on every single game. As the season comes to an end, some very funny numbers are thrown up and the way the model is structured, it can not account for teams that have packed up for the season. But I trust the model over my own knowledge so I followed every bet. This resulted in the worst week for AFL I can ever remember. $9,000 gone in 2 days. Since moving my bank from $50,000 to $75,000 AFL has lost almost $17,000. It is still well up for the season but as is always the case, my timing has been amazing.
We are coming very close to the US Open and last year this was the big saviour for me, over the 2 week period, I think it made about $20,000 profit. I have no doubt that this can not be repeated again and just hope for a nice profitable two weeks for both ATP and WTA. This week saw a disaster for ATP with close to $4,500 lost, but WTA made a nice $3,300 profit to minimise the loss.
The Horse racing model continued its poor run.
This week also saw the first full round of Soccer and over all models it broke about even. I will talk more about the Soccer services the further we get into the season.
All up a bloody terrible week. Year 3 is 51 days old and has seen a high of $19,500 and today’s low of -$10,400. A swing of $30,000. With the amount I am betting, these swings are going to be common place. I still believe in each model I am following and can only hope they all start performing to their true potential and this $10k deficit will evaporate in no time and I’ll be well on my way to my $200,000 goal.
The new bank amounts are below. (If a bank isn’t mentioned below then I am using a constant bank for it)
AFL H2H: $75000
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $75000
WTA: $79283
Total loss for the week was $11,064.31
AFL H2H – SP $18,244.00 $(0.85) 0.0%
week profit/loss: -449.80
AFL Line – SP $113,555.00 $(16,839.68) -14.8%
week profit/loss: -8544
ATP – SP $84,646.00 $(589.18) -0.7%
week profit/loss: -4414.84
WTA -SP $88,163.00 $4,283.95 4.9%
week profit/loss: 3289.63
New Horses $57,614.00 $2,516.00 4.4%
week profit/loss: -1252
XX Draws $2,000.00 $50.00 2.5%
week profit/loss: 550
XX Draws Under $2,000.00 $(128.50) -6.4%
week profit/loss: -490
XX Extended $3,000.00 $(1,278.50) -42.6%
week profit/loss: -1278.50
XX Extended Under $3,000.00 $1,706.00 56.9%
week profit/loss: 1706
FB Elite $2,050.00 $789.20 38.5%
week profit/loss: 789.20
Skeeve $4,370.00 $(970.00) -22.2%
week profit/loss: -970
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $378,642.00
Profit/Loss: $(10,461.56)
POT: -2.76%
Bets Placed: 516
Won: 220
Lost: 291
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 5
Winning %: 43.1%
Profit per day: $105,622.16 / 783 = $134.89