Glad to break the losing run with a decent profit this week. Once again the fluctuations were large over the 7 day period, at one stage sitting on -$45,000 and at another on just a $20,000 loss for the year. The big news this week was the introduction of mandatory limits on NSW racing. I have set up a live blog and will update it daily until all bookmakers have realised that their stupid loopholes won’t work.
I’ll first start with the usual moan. One big issue I had this week was with the PCG (Pro computer gambler) service. Tom advised some bets on college football. These were big bets too, 2 units on three separate games. Now only 1 bookmaker had the lines up for this game and the max bet they take is to win $250. 2 units for me means $1,000 on these picks. By the time I woke up these lines has moved from -8,-9 and -4 to -13, -19 and -9.5. These are massive moves and not unexpected if there is only 1 bookmaker offering the lines with a $250 limit. The same issue happened when I tried to follow college bets with Sportpunter, the lines move quickly and unless you could get on first, then it was a pointless exercise. I emailed Tom asking if he still thought I should bet as the lines had blown out. He replied with “In my opinion, the books shouldn’t even offer betting on these games. I don’t think the line matters that much.”. So I decided to bet them. You can already guess what happened. One game won, one game lost and one game won for the service while losing for me. So while the official return will state close to 2 units profit, the reality for most people is a 2 unit loss. A 4 unit turnaround. These games should not be sent out as official plays, when only 1 person can get a tiny amount on it, it just isn’t fair. It leaves me seriously questioning whether to continue with the service. I have been told the NFL is where most of the profits will come from, so will see where it takes me this season.
Continuing onto ClubGOWI and rebounding odds. Sadly for a lot of bets this week, if you don’t bet the second the emails come out then you wont be getting on. 5 of the 7 Soccer bets posted on the weekend never came back and were therefore no bets for me. Luckily 3 of the 5 lost and didn’t cost me. My thinking on the issue is the ones that don’t rebound are more likely to win, but hopefully this isn’t true. At the end of this year I should have more then enough data to see if this is the case. We had a similar case with Owltips bets, where the odds were pushed down within seconds and never came back. I managed to get on the one losing bet and missed the two winners.
This also got me thinking (a very dangerous act). It’s clear that some of the followers of these services have no idea about value. They will take whatever odds are available and keep pushing the price further down. Now Owltips long term profit shows an 8% return to best prices. My thinking was that the other side then becomes value when it’s odds increase by more then 8%. The other teams odds improve 10-20% after these emails are released and maybe by blind backing them I would make a profit. I asked Jonno from Sportspunter if this was the case and using our friend maths showed that the odds would need to increase by over 30% to make it profitable. Maybe one for the maths guys who read this blog. Your thoughts and equations in the comments section please.
Onto the weeks results and the AFL made a very welcome return to profit this week. It was the final round and I’m sure many people would have decided to not bet this round as most teams had no reason to play hard. It’s always interesting to talk about motivation in these type of games. Jonno made recommendations on what not to bet on and I followed his advice on the Hawthorn game, which cost me $2,000 profit. I decided that as it was a player based model, the probabilities should be a good indication as these guys are professionals and both sides should play to their full capacity no matter what. I bet all the other games but did bet less on the West Coast game which cost me a further $3,000 profit. Still very happy with the weekends return of $11,000. Boy am I glad I stopped following the Tennis model, I decided to track the results of the US Open and would be down $10,000. That feels like money made to me. The baseball totals model has made a massive comeback and added a further $3,800 profit this week. NRL lost $700 but that could have been so different with Manly running in a try with 15 seconds left to take away a massive win. Sportpunter ends its poor run and hopefully this is the start of great things again.
ClubGOWI made $1,200, but that is based on only the bets I could get matched. Diamond Edge has been on a horrendous run the past 2 weeks, losing a further $2,300 this week. PCG had a nightmare week with a $5,500 loss. Both Golf tipsters lost $600 combined and in the Soccer, Owltips lost $100, Fb Elite lost $500 and Football Value lost $2,000.
Still treading water for year 5 and hoping for a good run to get me back into profit. This week should be entertaining as a number of Soccer tipsters will be sending their first bets.
[mc4wp_form]
Total Profit for the week was $4,364.12
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $1,099,299.00
Profit/Loss: $(23,683.84)
POT: -2.15%
Bets Placed: 1512
Won: 649
Lost: 746
Half Payout: 12
Refunded: 105
Winning %: 46.5%
Total profit per day: $323,841.00 / 1525 = $212.35
Total Turnover: $15,442,042.37
Total ROI: 2.10%
ATP – SP $180,114.00 $(20,446.90) -11.4%
week profit/loss: 0
WTA – SP $124,622.00 $509.62 0.4%
week profit/loss: 0
AFL H2H – SP $40,166.00 $9,906.42 24.7%
week profit/loss: -840
AFL Line – SP $218,389.00 $(26,433.95) -12.1%
week profit/loss: 11927.62
SP MLB $168,364.00 $2,615.73 1.6%
week profit/loss: 3852.52
NRL SP $24,717.00 $5,054.35 20.4%
week profit/loss: -701
ClubGowi $113,914.00 $12,382.95 10.9%
week profit/loss: 595
GOWI $2,857.00 $1,244.00 43.5%
week profit/loss: 575
Diamond Edge $104,500.00 $4,680.00 4.5%
week profit/loss: -2330
PCG $80,342.00 $(3,740.56) -4.7%
week profit/loss: -5460
Jason Kelly Golf $3,291.00 $(2,691.00) -81.8%
week profit/loss: -325
Betswot $4,918.00 $(3,413.00) -69.4%
week profit/loss: -315
OwlTips $14,727.00 $(545.00) -3.7%
week profit/loss: -115
FB Elite $3,000.00 $(1,050.00) -35.0%
week profit/loss: -500
Football Value $3,000.00 $(1,085.00) -36.2%
week profit/loss: -2000