Last weekend saw the end of the AFL and NRL season and 2 weeks prior we saw the end of the NBA season.
The Dailyprofit service offers these 3 sports plus the NFL. Let’s have a look at how the 3 just completed sports did this season before looking at how they work even better as part of a portfolio.
AFL
What was once the golden goose for the Sportpunter models has turned into a red rat. The last few seasons have not been kind to the AFL model and 2020 was no different. Jonno has looked into the reasons behind its fall from grace and believes there is still life left in the model. This season we were betting mostly on underdogs (average odds placed were $3.27) and 1 or 2 points the other way in close games and the graph below would have looked very different. Placing Line bets instead of H2H bets resulted in a small profit.
We placed 88 H2H bets and won just 27( 30.7%) of them. We turned over 113.45 units and lost 26.5517 units at –23.4% ROI.
Average bet amount: 1.2892 units, Average odds: $3.27, Largest drawdown: 24.07 units
NRL
In the NRL model, we see the complete opposite. It looks like we have turned the AFL results upside down. The NRL model has been a very strong performer over the past 5 seasons.
The NRL has certain filters in place. We do not bet on favs under $1.60. This means the average odds we bet on were $2.56. The average bet size is also much larger than the AFL, coming in at 3 units (compared to 1.29 for AFL).
This results in a higher turnover of 207.00 units with fewer bets (69 bets). We won 35 (50.7%) of those bets and made a profit of 32.1773 units at 15.5% ROI.
The largest drawdown was 20.02 units.
NBA
The superstar performer of the Sportpunter models for the past few years now. The NBA Totals keeps performing year after year. It continues to give enormous profits when seasons start (or restart) and still provides smaller profits throughout the rest of the year. With a heap of games on each day, we get to turnover a massive amount each season and make some big profits.
This season (which started way back in October of 2019 and ended almost a full year later) saw a turnover of 721.10 units over 416 bets. We won 225 (54.1%) of them and made a profit of 62.438 units at 8.7% ROI.
As these are totals, the average odds were $1.93 and the average bet size was 1.70 units.
The largest drawdown was 23.43 units.
Combined Results
If we combine all 3 sports for the period from 22nd of October 2019 to the 25th of October 2020 we can see two distinct and similar patterns either side of the covid break. An extremely strong start, followed by a few months of going nowhere. This is an ongoing trend with the Sportpunter models and something Jonno is looking at closer. We also tell members to stop following the AFL and NRL models after certain rounds. This year with covid, this rule was not followed for the official bets, so what you see are all bets advised for the entire season.
One thing to note is that each sport had a max drawdown of between 20-24 units. We can see that the combined results had a 29 unit drawdown. We advise members to have a combined bank of between 50-100 units, with 50 being very high risk and 100 being low risk. This seems about right going forward as you always want to have a bank at least double the largest drawdown.
If we were to add the NFL results over that same time period we would be adding another 19.8968 units profit to make the total profit over the year to be +87.9606 units. But that includes the end of last season and the start of this season.
NBA, AFL and NRL combined saw a turnover of 1041.55 units with a profit of 68.0638 units at 6.53% ROI.
Based on the number of members we have following the service and the average amount they bet per unit, we took over $2 million from the bookies in the past year just on these 3 sports.
Pricing increase
Currently, only the NFL season is running, but the NBA is restarting in January. We will once again be increasing prices a few weeks before the NBA season starts to $199 AUD per month. The current price is $159 and members stay on the rate they signed up at. We also have a cap of 150 members and based on how close we got to that this season and the success of the models, that cap will be reached before the NBA season starts. So set a reminder a few weeks before the NBA season to sign up if you are going to follow along.
If you have any questions about the service, head to the Dailyprofit site and use the chat function.