What a relief. Back into profit for the first time in over 6 months. February and the start of March have been the stuff of dreams. The last 33 days has seen a $45,000 profit. That has pushed me to +$10,000 for the year. There were a large number of games this week with large bets leading 1-0 with not long to go ending up drawing. If these teams had held on, I would be talking about that $50,000 week I alluded to a few posts ago. The bet that pushed me back into profit was my fist AFL bet of the year. The preseason cup has started and the new player based model looks a real beauty.
It really does feel great to be in profit for the year, but I am cautious of what still might happen. I have had $40,000 drops before in a very short space of time. For now I’m just going to enjoy this. There are 4 more months before the full year finishes and the dream is to make an average of $20,000 a month to push the profit to close to $100,000. This is nowhere near the $250,000 I was hoping for at the start of July, but if it makes it there then I’ll be ecstatic.
Lets have a good look at the graph of the past 8 months.
We can see the great start we had, which followed on from the end of the year 2 graph. Then from Aug to early Oct we were going nowhere, followed by the big drop off in mid to late October. That was then followed by 3 months of climbs and falls, resulting in an all time low on January 25th of -$44,000. From that day it has been nothing but straight up, a really amazing climb.
It might not sound like I am too excited, but I am. It’s just that I have expected this for sometime. I still believe the majority of models I follow are profitable long term and they will all have losing runs, I’ve just had to deal with a quite long losing run for a number of models I stake heavily.
Let’s get onto this weeks monster return and see what contributed the most.
We shall start with the losers. This week it was The Football Analyst Euro systems. Combined they lost $5,000. So far this season $170,000 has been bet for a return of $400. But I see value in these systems. Many times I have had a lot of money on some very very long shots and they have come very close to winning. It will take just one or two good wins and this model will look great at the end of the season. That’s it for losses this week.
Onto the winners. I started following the new AFL model with half stakes for the NAB cup and the results just continued on from last year. A $8,400 profit. ATP made a small $1,100 profit and the NBL added $2,200. XX Draws had a steady weekend with $1,500 profit and Combo FI added $3,400. FB Elite very easily could off had a $20,000 weekend, but in the end $1,600 was added to the total profit. Skeeve’s run of fine form continued with another $4,200 profit for the week. Finally TFA Established added a further $1,500 to end of what was an amazing week.
Onwards and Upwards from here I say. I’ve been through the ringer and after being pummeled for 8 months and surviving, we start a new dawn, one that shall see the profits for the year reach $100,000, or maybe go back down to -$50,000. Who really knows, this game is a fickle fucker at times. I’ll continue to enjoy the ride and have faith in my portfolio.
I don’t think many people would have stuck around this long with the run that I’ve had. I think it’s a good lesson for anyone trying to get into this game, perseverance is a very important skill to have in a situation like this.
Next week I shall be laughing at this weeks total profit, as next weeks will clearly eclipse it. Here’s hoping.
Total profit for the week was $24,206.63
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $2,484,490.91
Profit/Loss: $10,627.81
POT: 0.43%
Bets Placed: 3,966
Won: 1,591
Lost: 2,272
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 101
Winning %: 41.2%
Profit per day: $126,711.53 / 979 = $129.42
AFL H2H – SP $28,852.00 $9,068.35 31.4%
week profit/loss: 3136
AFL Line – SP $161,866.00 $(6,684.08) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 5274.90
ATP – SP $321,593.00 $3,283.70 1.0%
week profit/loss: 1173.73
NBL Totals $103,695.00 $(4,898.86) -4.7%
week profit/loss: 217.90
NBL Line $63,692.00 $942.53 1.5%
week profit/loss: 2050
XX Draws $52,000.00 $(7,485.00) -14.4%
week profit/loss: 210
XX Draws Under $52,000.00 $(4,942.00) -9.5%
week profit/loss: 341
XX Extended $107,000.00 $12,186.00 11.4%
week profit/loss: 295
XX Extended Under $106,694.00 $1,384.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: 736
FB Elite $206,819.00 $(17,734.97) -8.6%
week profit/loss: 1640
Skeeve $125,567.00 $(7,232.04) -5.8%
week profit/loss: 4209.60
Combo FI $183,950.00 $24,093.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 3435
6-22 $60,475.00 $3,368.00 5.6%
week profit/loss: 1343.75
7-21 $92,360.00 $7,081.75 7.7%
week profit/loss: 371.25
7-22 $41,310.00 $1,479.00 3.6%
week profit/loss: 1443.75
8-21 $44,750.00 $3,066.63 6.9%
week profit/loss: -1166.25
8-22 $27,013.00 $(635.87) -2.4%
week profit/loss: -416.25
E1-E7 $50,625.00 $(3,914.24) -7.7%
week profit/loss: -322.50
E2-E6 $55,500.00 $3,391.14 6.1%
week profit/loss: -2043.75
E2-E7 $27,750.00 $(227.24) -0.8%
week profit/loss: -1102.50
E3-E6 $22,875.00 $670.50 2.9%
week profit/loss: -1500
E3-E7 $12,375.00 $517.50 4.2%
week profit/loss: 0