Always love weeks like this. It’s why I’ve stuck around for the past 4 years while 99% of other people who start these types of blogs are gone after a few months. I practice the ancient art of patience and am rewarded for it on weeks like this. Last week I said this would be a +20k week and I guess what you ask for is given (Supermodel in my bed next week). We had two tipsters who had never made a profit for me get some big wins. One I had followed for 6 months and only ever had 1 win and another a new tipster I was following and had been giving shit about his prices (which i still stand by). Add in the ever profitable NBL model and some other sprinkling of wins and we finally get back into a decent profit for the year.
I have decided to start using Twitter now and have never publicised my handle, but if you want to follow me you can do so here.
Let’s shake things up and instead of going by sport we will go by which ones profited and which ones lost this week.
Start with the negatives and the Sportpunter ATP model sucked balls this week. An $8,000 loss and not the start to the season I was hoping for. I didn’t think it was going this badly until I checked the results, but the big winning first day was on last weeks results and since then it has given it all back and then some. A real shame, as these big majors are where I usually make a fair bit of my money. Still early days for a model that has performed amazingly over the past 11 years. TFA had a mini resurrection before dying in the arse again. A $4,500 loss and hopes of any profit this season are gone, hoping to claw my way back to a small loss over the coming months and rethink my position for the next season. FB Elite lost $1,000 but I can see this model ready to burst out of its funk in the coming weeks, lots of draws and near misses and only 1 or two weeks of a bit of luck and Elite will be back.
Now onto the profits. Skeeve had a great week and missed another big win by 5 minutes. I always bet late and one game which was on two multis was postponed and I did not want to bet straight up on the other selections so left them, they both won easily. If the game had gone ahead, instead of a $3,300 win, it could have been in the 6-7k area. Combo FI seems to be my go to guy, it will never set the world on fire but provides me with consistency in an otherwise crazy world. A further $1,600 profit and sitting at 7.1% ROI.
I started following ClubGOWI after he had an amazing run and a few readers pointing me in his direction, as with any tipster after a good run, variance kicked in and a number of losses came to even out the good run. That’s when I got involved. As i’ve said many times, the write ups are in depth and Keith has a strong understanding of not just soccer, but also Tennis and NFL. I also wanted to move away from following model based systems and have one or two tipsters who used their knowledge more then a computer and pure stats. I have had issues with prices and know others have to, but again, this is something we all sadly have to accept from any successful tipsters. This week really showed what this service can achieve when it hits its straps. A $7,500 win with some great tipping in the Soccer and Tennis. I’m glad this service was brought to my attention, as it has a lot of potential.
The other service that was not performing well was Nics value picks, again I started after an amazing run. Until this week I had 1 winner and a few second places. Again, getting odds was a hassle, so much so that I decided to accept much higher variance and not bet the places as they would not have been profitable. I can get within 5% of quoted odds on wins which is just acceptable. My patience over the last few months had been wearing thin and after hitting a $10,000 loss I wasn’t sure how much longer to follow (I like to give everyone a full season though). Well, thankfully my patience was duly rewarded with a win at odds of $123 (9.6% worse odds then the recorded ones of $136). A $8,500 profit for the week and while not yet putting me into profit, it has given a hell of a lot of breathing space and with some luck over the next few months, following this tipster might just pay off.
Onto the profitable Sportpunter models. As seen above, Tennis was terrible. NHl Totals on the other hand has made a great comeback this week, adding $6,400 profit. NBA added $2,500 and NBL continues to amaze me with $4,500 profit. The NBL is another perfect example of patience, until this season it has broke even or made a small loss, but the potential was there and this season has really outshone. With such a small amount of bets, this is purely variance, but variance in the right direction.
So that’s it for what turned out to be an amazing week. Hoping to finish off January with another big winning week and then take the profit to $50,000 before another AFL season starts. So the prediction for this week is back to back $20,000 profit weeks with TFA having one of those spectacular weeks and Skeeve hitting 100%. NHL will get back into profit for the season and NBL will continue what is the greatest run of form I have ever seen. Until next week.
Total profit for the week was $21,040.52
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,130,657.00
Profit/Loss: $19,224.57
POT: 0.90%
Bets Placed: 3,580
Won: 1316
Lost: 2120
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 134
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $206,746.66 / 1301 = $158.91
Total Turnover: $11,880,486.53
Total ROI: 1.74%
ATP – SP $239,971.00 $1,478.11 0.6%
week profit/loss: -7,819.03
FB Elite $122,000.00 $(14,510.00) -11.9%
week profit/loss: -1050
Skeeve $63,040.00 $(5,172.10) -8.2%
week profit/loss: 3360
Combo FI $72,715.00 $5,184.38 7.1%
week profit/loss: 1566.88
TFA $409,626.00 $(32,538.58) -7.94%
week profit/loss: -4507.58
ClubGowi $85,040.00 $5,873.50 6.9%
week profit/loss: 7569
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $15,673.00 $(1,855.00) -11.8%
week profit/loss: 8525
NHL Totals $215,881.00 $(4,171.74) -1.9%
week profit/loss: 6449.29
NBL Totals $72,667.00 $15,552.95 21.4%
week profit/loss: 4295.50
NBL Line $59,506.00 $18,182.75 30.6%
week profit/loss: 186.70
NBA Totals $101,639.00 $499.00 0.5%
week profit/loss: 2805
NBA H2H $59,198.00 $7,264.76 12.3%
week profit/loss: -340.24