Jan 21st – Jan 27th -$48.83
By far the smallest weekly profit or loss ever posted. There won’t be an update next week as I will be recovering from the Superbowl. I think in the past 4.6 years I have only missed 2 or 3 weekly updates. In two days I fly off to the states for a really amazing trip. I’ll be heading to the Phoenix Open (Golf), a Phoenix Suns (NBA) game, a Phoenix Coyotes (NHL) game, and the Superbowl. One of my bucket list items was to see all 4 american sports. I have been to a couple of MLB games and an NFL game before, but the NBA and NHL games will complete that quest. I’ll be uploading images and tweeting the entire trip via my twitter page , so follow me if you want to live vicariously through me for a week. I’m not sure I will even get to place many bets, but will endeavor to do my best, as massive profit jumps can come at anytime and I wouldn’t want to miss an amazing week. But, as always, living life is much more important and I want to enjoy the trip, so if I miss bets, then so be it. The results will mean very little in the long term. Placing the bets should not be an issue as I will leave my computers running at home and use TeamViewer to log into them.
The Daily25 Forum has been growing nicely. After it’s first week we have 74 members and some pretty interesting topics. One of those topics is asking what to do when multiple tipsters pick against each other. This is also a question I have always struggled with myself and I chop and change on this all the time. I used to simply back everything as if they were completely independent events, but felt that all I was doing was giving the bookies 5% ROI for no reason at all. After this I moved to just following whichever bet came out first. This meant I was not following the best tipster, but the one who posted earliest. Now as I wait for most tipster to release the tips first, I look to take advantage of the price moves that ensue after the picks are released. This week I had a perfect example. Football Investor combo system had Port Value as it’s only play, his recorded odds on the match was $1.95. The Football Analyst thought differently and had 3 system bets on Crewe at odds of $4.02. Normally I would pick Football Investor over TFA, but the odds guided me this time, as Port Vale were only available at 1.85 and Crewe were a very nice $4.34. So I left the $1,000 bet on Port Vale and bet the $1,500 on Crewe. There were a number of potential outcomes, but luckily for me the most optimal one came in with Crewe winning 1-0 and added $5,010 profit and also saving an extra $1,000 by not backing the Football Investor pick. The other option is to just leave the bets and this makes sense too. It’s a tough one, but there are some good replies in the thread. If you do it differently, than let us know.
A slow week for Sportpunter as the NFL had a break before the Superbowl and the NHL have their all star weekend. The NHL had a few bets before the break and lost $1,000. The NBL has been a complete disaster the last month and line bets alone have lost over $20,000 in the last 2 weeks. This week the totals made $3,050, but those line bets lost $10,000. I am now $11,000 down for the NBL season with only a few rounds to go. A very disappointing result.
ClubGowi official bets lost $1,400 but the few unofficial blue type bets I could get on made $3,700. I really do not like these bets as they are even more difficult to get quoted odds than the red type bets. Both Golf tipsters lost a total of $550.
Onto the football and Mike from Winabobatoo has been in hospital this week so there were no bets. While I have issues with the service, I wish Mike a speedy recovery. Football Elite made $2,300, TFA made $5,300 (thanks to Crewe), and Football Investor lost $450. My own bets lost $1,200.
So I wish you all adieu for the next fortnight. The reason I put in all the effort placing and recording bets every week is for these type of trips. I love to travel and I love sport, so for me there is nothing better than a sporting holiday with a few mates. I will miss my family immensely, but skype is a decent substitute. Enjoy the next fortnight, I know I will.
Total Loss for the week was $48.83
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $4,275,453.93
Profit/Loss: $59,845.35
POT: 1.40%
Bets Placed: 6212
Won: 2167
Lost: 2935
Half Payout: 48
Refunded: 1062
Winning %: 42.5%
Total profit per day: $407,370.19 / 1672 = $243.64
Total Turnover: $18,618,197.30
Total ROI: 2.19%
NBL Totals $67,917.00 $(6,592.94) -9.7%
week profit/loss: 3059.90
NBL Line $165,707.00 $(4,736.04) -2.9%
week profit/loss: -9945.00
NFL Totals $130,134.00 $17,204.29 13.2%
week profit/loss: 0
NFL Line $71,319.00 $(263.08) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 0
NHL Totals $189,307.00 $26,034.59 13.8%
week profit/loss: -1024.16
ClubGowi $480,475.00 $6,894.71 1.4%
week profit/loss: -1375
GOWI $17,326.00 $2,516.03 14.5%
week profit/loss: 3716.03
PCG $206,031.00 $(4,284.23) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Jason Kelly Golf $10,991.93 $(8,743.53) -79.5%
week profit/loss: -175
Betswot $9,223.00 $(7,468.00) -81.0%
week profit/loss: -375
FB Elite $125,011.00 $8,651.50 6.9%
week profit/loss: 2310
Football Value $38,000.00 $(7,525.00) -19.8%
week profit/loss: 0
TFA 21 $217,745.00 $1,977.20 0.9%
week profit/loss: 1220
TFA 41 $211,276.00 $(1,052.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: -1520
6-21-31 $123,657.00 $12,111.22 9.8%
week profit/loss: 1600
D1-D6 $73,000.00 $2,895.00 4.0%
week profit/loss: 120
E1-E6 $63,540.00 $23,682.40 37.3%
week profit/loss: 3902.40
Mike Lindley $53,000.00 $(2,194.50) -4.1%
week profit/loss: 0
WINABOBATOO $206,979.00 $(4,434.68) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 0
FBI combo $99,500.00 $17,859.00 17.9%
week profit/loss: 0
FBI Euro $116,142.00 $20,113.00 17.3%
week profit/loss: -450
Odds pushed out $26,750.00 $6,428.00 24.0%
week profit/loss: 75
Personal $29,485.00 $(6,919.21) -23.5%
week profit/loss: -1188
Mistakes $13,735.00 $(13,735.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0
Are you not following Sport Punter tennis this year Steve? Enjoy the trip!
No, I stopped midway through last year. The totals still seem fine but very hard to match the odds and the H2H bets have not performed. I will give it some time before jumping back in.
Enjoy the US, mate. I hope this is the kind of thing I’ll be able to afford in the next year or two!
What is the typical dropp in odds for the SP tennis model?
No idea anymore. I could always get or better the H2H, I never bet the totals
“One of those topics is asking what to do when multiple tipsters pick against each other”
I’ve noticed you’ve also had this problem for many years. Use Bayes’ Theorem with the naive assumption that the tipsters are uncorrelated:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
That’s a good start, though there are better ways than this.
Hi guys, I saw long discussions about ClubGowi service, so I will try to add my few cents here, I´m following Gowi for some time and I’ve got 4,77% profit on him last year on 1156 bets. But for sure his numbers on the website are far from true, I always take at least his suggested odds, but mainly higher prices or better spreads (mainly live), If I don´t catch his odds I skip the bet, I skipped whole MLS, Brazil and mainly Golf, skip this sport, I didn´t see any profit there for a long time, now I have tables for every sport and league he is following, to see if there are some really bad ones, like IMO France 2, where he can´t be profitable, but still more than 4% on a big roll made a solid profit for me last year, but it is necessary to not bet everything and be very careful with the odds, IMO many people just blindly bet the games with lower odds right after the newsletter arrive, I usualy skip the newsletter and check some time later how the odds moved.