More profit added this week and I’m back to where I was just over 6 months ago. In those 6 months I have lost and regained $95,000. These are crazy swings, but the way it is in this game. If your thinking of starting along this same path, the number one lesson I can give is to be sure you can cope with these swings. They are repeated over and over again and there are ways to minimise them, but in doing so you will also minimise your profit. Once again this week threw up some very frustrating moments, another second in the golf, some near wins in the Soccer and a massive loss on a favorite for TFA. Add to that the usual buzzer beaters, 93rd minute goals, and general unluckiness that usually occurs on anything I bet on. Even with my lack of luck, we continue to march towards a healthy profit and with 5 months left in year 4, we could still reach that $100k profit.
We had Bubba Watson leading by 2 with 1 round to go and Ryan Moore in 3rd place. Either player winning would have produced $3-6k profit. Bubba had it all day and then missed a putt from a meter out to hand the victory to Stadler. That’s two seconds in 2 weeks. Very very frustrating. A $775 loss for the week.
TFA is now really starting to frustrate me, Even though the higher level systems are about break-even, I believe most of the subscribers would be using the combined systems as they are the ones that have historically produced the best results. I believe having so many systems is a bit of a cop-out at times and saw it with Formbet as well. With so many systems, one is always going to be winning and Formbet goes to great lengths to let people know of any one system that is ahead, but overall the system has a massive loss. TFA isn’t so blatant in regards to this but does let people know that it isn’t up to him if they win or lose. This is the beauty of these sort of systems for the tipster, they are always going to have a stream of players winning and letting others know how great they are, and the losers just leave. I have a lot of respect for tipsters like Skeeve and FB Elite who back themselves completely. There is no hiding behind anything in what they do. I guess my real frustration lies in how bad I want The Football Analyst to succeed. It has high turnover at long odds and the potential to add a massive amount of profit per year, but the fact that I am down after almost 2 full seasons is not a good sign. I really do not want to drop the service, but at -$40,000 so far, it is not looking good.
ATP had another losing week with a $600 loss, the NFL season ended and I will do a review of the Sportpunter model this week. NHL did well with $3,300 profit and NBA lost $240. NBL continues to do what it does with $5,900 profit and now over $47,000 profit for the season at well over 30% ROI.
ClubGOWI was terrible this week losing $3,500 but this should be much more as I decided to bet the NFL bets he put up but were not official bets. The way he read this game was as if he had already seen it and came back in time to let us know what the result would be, this produced $2,000 profit. I have now had 234 bets and bet a total of $115,000 with ClubGOWI and there are still a few concerns. Soccer is by far the largest sport bet and after $97,000 worth of bets I am down $1,000. Golf is also down $2,000 but that is to be expected with the sort of odds you get with Golf. NFL and Tennis are doing amazing with $5,000 and $4,000 profit respectively. As Soccer accounts for 85% of the turnover, I’m hoping for a bit of an improvement there. I have also noted that Soccer is also the one sport that I get significantly poorer odds and the other sports I can usually equal the stated odds, this would also cause a significant difference in my results. Still early days and I will do a more thorough review once I have turned over half a million.
One final rant and it’s once again for Skeeve, who has now made the decision not to bet on League 2 games. It seems eventually all he will have left to bet on is conference south games, played in the second half of the season only on Saturdays and only if the wind is blowing north at a rate of 4 knots and two players are wearing red socks. It’s fine to have a niche, but this is getting a bit ridiculous. I think it is to his detriment, as there will be fewer bets and this of course leads to much higher varience. I’ve said it for the last few months, he has repeatedly said, “don’t worry, this period is the best one and we will all make profit”. But what happens when varience kicks in and we dont? The season is still salvageable, but I’m not so sure about the long term success. A $1,700 loss for the week.
Again my wisdom is on show through this blog, over the last few weeks I have said that Football Elite seemed to be on the cusp of some profitable weeks and last week there was a very nice win, but that was nothing compared to this week. A $9,000 profit and so close to 2 more big priced winners. It brings the service back to just a $600 loss and if things can stay the way they have for the past few weeks, we can slowly make our way to some profits and hopefully get back the $20,000 I lost last season.
Combo Football Investor is the last of the Soccer models and once again, week after week, a nice profit is made. This week resulted in a very healthy $3,100. The only Soccer model in profit.
Once again a nice healthy profit, anything over $5,000 a week is great. Hoping that the current $42,000 soccer loss is wiped out in the last few months of the season and for February to be very profitable as we move into a new AFL season. AFL has been the one constant for me and I hope it continues this way for many years to come. Looking forward to another exciting week of betting.
Total profit for the week was $11,953.72
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $2,307,071.00
Profit/Loss: $39,506.14
POT: 1.71%
Bets Placed: 3,900
Won: 1420
Lost: 2291
Half Payout: 15
Refunded: 174
Winning %: 38.3%
Total profit per day: $227,028.23 / 1315 = $172.64
Total Turnover: $12,056,900.53
Total ROI: 1.88%
ATP – SP $254,793.00 $558.08 0.2%
week profit/loss: -594.27
FB Elite $145,000.00 $(660.00) -0.5%
week profit/loss: 8950
Skeeve $71,440.00 $(8,058.10) -11.3%
week profit/loss: -1686
Combo FI $80,715.00 $8,376.38 10.4%
week profit/loss: 3145
TFA $439,126.00 $(39,161.08) -8.91%
week profit/loss: -2512.50
ClubGowi $114,540.00 $6,127.50 5.3%
week profit/loss: -3501
NFL Totals $104,169.00 $(707.94) -0.7%
week profit/loss: 0
NP Win $17,148.00 $(3,330.00) -19.4%
week profit/loss: -775
NHL Totals $234,847.00 $(3,708.76) -1.6%
week profit/loss: 3336.07
NBL Totals $83,622.00 $22,682.85 27.1%
week profit/loss: -90.20
NBL Line $69,136.00 $24,635.50 35.6%
week profit/loss: 5920.50
NBA Totals $111,542.00 $1,137.37 1.0%
week profit/loss: 484.39
NBA H2H $71,461.00 $7,469.86 10.5%
week profit/loss: -723.27