July 11th – July 17th -$5,608.85
This was the week I had to have, The amazing AFL run ended abruptly with just 1 win from 11 bets. This coincided with the second week of moving banks which meant I was betting much more then usual. Tennis continued its recent good form with ATP adding $5,500. Horses made a loss of $800.
This week I’ll be enjoying some sun in Fiji. I will be using a bot to place the horse racing bets, which usually means worse odds of at least $1. To compensate for this I’ll be upping my bets from $200 a race to $300. This means if its a bad week, i’ll lose an extra 50%. This is something I have been thinking about for a while, as just using a bot would save me time and hassle, the odds are much worse but still profitable, so we will see how this small test goes. All other bets will be placed as per usual.
In the end, not as terrible as it could have been and something I was expecting. Let’s hope it is only a blip for the AFL model and it’s back to its winning ways this weekend.
The new bank amounts are below. Both AFL models have dropped, ATP has risen and WTA has stayed the same.
AFL H2H: $76394
AFL Line: $75000
ATP: $80834
WTA: $75000
Total loss for the week was $5,608.85
AFL H2H – SP $3,808.00 $1,394.00 36.6%
week profit/loss: -1337
AFL Line – SP $32,833.00 $(2,147.92) -6.5%
week profit/loss: -9156.99
ATP – SP $24,359.00 $5,834.04 24.0%
week profit/loss: 5525.17
WTA -SP $23,002.00 $(435.70) -1.9%
week profit/loss: 182.98
New Horses $14,263.00 $3,237.00 22.7%
week profit/loss: -823
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $98,265.00
Profit/Loss: $7,881.42
POT: 8.02%
Bets Placed: 130
Won: 63
Lost: 66
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 1
Winning %: 48.8%
Profit per day: $123,965.14 / 748 = $165.72
Personally I’d be very wary about placing more money and getting less value (lower prices) with the horses mate but I hope it works out for you.
Mathematically it is the wrong move but I do understand your time is money argument too as I use it myself 🙂
Yep, Not the best move, but if it can save 3 hours a night then it’s something I have to seriously think about. After 18 days of data, it looks like I’d be giving up about $3,000 profit a month, I still feel the model will be profitable and there have been no massive drawdowns in the 8 months I have been following it.