What a pathetic start to year 5. Things go from bad to worse and with the football season not far off, and historically never producing any profit, I’m at a very low point. Another massive loss on fairly low turnover this week. We still have 1 week to go for the first month of year 5, but I already have close to a $50,000 hole to climb out of. Not an ideal start, but I just have to trust in the portfolio I have created and ride through this very rough patch. The AFL loss doesn’t concern me too much, the last few weeks have been poor, but the $11,000 loss was just two bets, can easily put that down to variance. But the ATP is a real worry, no profit for the last 12 months and now this new model has started so badly, last night added 2 massive losses on short price favorites. With average odds of $1.86, I should not be seeing the fluctuations I am unless something is very wrong with the ratings.
I’ve been very lazy the last few months and have not looked into what I will be following for the next football season. That changes this week and I will hopefully have my portfolio ready to show off in about 2 weeks. Once again as I do every year, I’ll spell out who I am following, my betting bank and also bet sizes. I will then widely speculate based on past performance the massive amounts of profit I am sure to make and then laugh at myself at the end of the year as I see how very far away I was from that. I believe last season I expected close to $300,000 profit from my football portfolio. I was slightly off that mark by $330,000.
Sportpunter was the main culprit again this week, combining all systems I follow it lost a whopping $21,250. The ATP lost $10,500 and WTA a further $1,400. The two AFL line bets lost $11,100 and there was 1 tiny H2H bet that won at odds of $17 for a $1,280 profit. The Rugby had 1 bet for a small profit and NRL made $900. The Baseball totals have now had wind and stadium data incorporated into them, but still managed to lose $700 this week.
After testing with people based in the UK and Europe, I know that I receive ClubGOWI emails 4 seconds slower on average then the majority of people. While it doesn’t sound like much, it really is a significant disadvantage and the main reason I no longer bet as soon as the tips come out. I can’t blame Keith for this, it’s just how it is, if I lived in the UK nearer the email server that distributes the emails then I might be able to get closer odds. So for now I am betting closing lines, and only if they are within 7% of quoted odds. This has resulted in me not betting on a number of games and this week that proved beneficial. I made $1,700 this week, but it would have been a loss if I had followed all bets. I think long term I am more likely to miss more winning bets and place more losing bets as the best indicator of a profitable service is how often it beats closing lines, so I assume the bets that come in and therefore I don’t bet, offer the most value.
The other two baseball models lost $2,000 combined and the Golf tipsters lost $800 combined, but got very close. McIlroy winning wasn’t the worst result as it helps the long term bet I have on him to win the race to Dubai given by the ClubGowi service.
If this week wasn’t bad enough, I’ve just received an email from the only Horse racing tipster who I had complete confidence in saying he is closing down the service. I would have put the service on par with the Sportpunter service. The odds recorded were beatable, the workload was 10 minutes a week and the results and long term history were amazing. Comparing it to the other Horse racing services I have been following makes them all look like shysters and conman. They just don’t compare whatsoever in terms of fairness of odds and ease of getting bets on. I had complete faith that this service would have provided me with amazing long term profits. Now I have to continue my search for a profitable horse racing tipster. This tipster was just like Sportpunter is to all the other services I follow, it makes a profit while I continue looking for any other service that can do the same. I will eventually get around to updating you all on this new avenue of betting.
The new site is coming together nicely and I have added a few small touches over the last week. You will now notice a big number on the top right header showing the profit for the previous month. It looks good right now, but from August 1st it will have a very big negative number up there for the month. I really like the look of the new site, and now just need to create a logo for it and I think it wont need any further work for the next year. If you feel anything can be added to it to make it even better then let me know in the comments section.
I wonder what the final week of month 1 year 5 will bring. I just don’t know anymore and can only hope for a quick return to profit.
[mc4wp_form]
Total loss for the week was $22,276.73
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $383,171.00
Profit/Loss: $(45,498.60)
POT: -11.87%
Bets Placed: 472
Won: 201
Lost: 245
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 23
Winning %: 45.1%
Total profit per day: $302,026.24 / 1483 = $203.65
Total Turnover: $14,725,914.37
Total ROI: 2.05%
ATP – SP $78,589.00 $(13,009.55) -16.6%
week profit/loss: -10,494
WTA – SP $55,754.00 $2,474.92 4.4%
week profit/loss: -1420.60
AFL H2H – SP $13,687.00 $(290.80) -2.1%
week profit/loss: 1280
AFL Line – SP $90,289.00 $(33,128.37) -36.7%
week profit/loss: -11,102
SP MLB $49,261.00 $(819.65) -1.7%
week profit/loss: -717.23
Rugby SP $8,678.00 $(2,771.50) -31.9%
week profit/loss: 319
NRL SP $5,179.00 $2,141.00 41.3%
week profit/loss: 877.90
ClubGowi $34,849.00 $455.10 1.3%
week profit/loss: 2187.70
GOWI $557.00 $(557.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -500
Diamond Edge $24,500.00 $(864.00) -3.5%
week profit/loss: -1453.50
PCG $18,100.00 $2,619.25 14.5%
week profit/loss: -480
Jason Kelly Golf $1,400.00 $(800.00) -57.1%
week profit/loss: -425
Betswot $2,328.00 $(948.00) -40.7%
week profit/loss: -350