Not the start to year 8 I was hoping for. The first few days were fantastic and gave me hope that year 8 would be the turning point after 2 miserable years. Just a few days in and I was sitting on $26,000 profit. Sadly the NRL model had other plans and decided to start giving back a lot of the profits it made earlier in the year. It’s always strange when I start a new spreadsheet. It feels as though I am starting all over again and unless I take the time to look at my overall graph, it can really play tricks on you. The only reason I used to start a new spreadsheet each year was that the spreadsheet I use only goes to 10,000 rows (and the calculations would stuff up if you tried to add more). In the early years when I was following a heap of tipsters, I would be betting close to 10,000 bets per year. Now that I only follow a few models, I will leave this spreadsheet as is all the way through until year 10 ends.
In total, July saw turnover of $232,160.00 for a loss of $23,860.00 at –10.30% ROI.
I placed 106 bets over the month and won 46 and lost 58.
NRL
A horror month for the NRL model. The H2H bets lost $19,360.00 at a -29.5% ROI. Just 9 winners from 25 bets at average odds of $2.48. Variance did play a role in these results (and always will over such a small sample), as I was beating the closing line comfortably on the majority of these bets.
The Totals made $910 profit at 6.5%.
With just 5 rounds left in the regular season, I am hoping for a strong finish. I’m still up $20,530.00 for the season, but if the model is getting these end of season games wrong (due to the motivation of teams, or some other variable it doesn’t account for), we could end up back where we started.
AFL
Not a great month for the AFL either. The H2H’s lost $160 at –0.3% and the Line bets lost $5,250.00 at -5.1%. A reversal this month, with a lot of the smaller overlays winning while the larger bets lost. Still, with 4 regular season rounds to go, the model has performed amazingly this year. Currently up $79,410.00.
So between the AFL and NRL models this year, I’ve made just shy of $100,000.00 (with a few weeks to go). I’ll happily take that return every year. I just have to hope for a strong finish to the season for both sports which will see me through August. September then brings on the NFL and October the NBA.
Total Loss for the month was $23,860.00
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 8
Total bet amount: $232,160.00
Profit/Loss: -$23,860.00
POT: -10.28%
Bets Placed: 106
Won: 46
Lost: 58
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 0
Winning %: 44.2%
Total profit per day: $304,720.00 / 2587 = $117.78
Total Turnover: $30,480,380.00
Total ROI: 0.999%
| Sport/Tipster | Wagered | Profit/Loss | ROI | Jul P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFL H2H | $50,090.00 | -$160.00 | -0.3% | -$160.00 |
| AFL Line | $102,520.00 | -$5,250.00 | -5.1% | -$5,250.00 |
| NRL H2H | $65,620.00 | -$19,360.00 | -29.5% | -$19,360.00 |
| NRL Totals | $13,930.00 | $910.00 | 6.5% | $910.00 |
| Total | $232,160.00 | -$23,860.00 | -10.3% | -$23,860.00 |