July 30th – Aug 5th -$2,103.40
Not the greatest week for the sports side of things. I did manage to hit a trifecta with the horses that paid out a massive return, but I am keeping those records separate. Some Sportpunter models are giving me real concerns lately. I will continue with them till season end, but need to look at what else is out there in regards to Tennis and Baseball. I will probably stick with Sportpunter as he very rarely has two bad seasons in a row. When I say a bad season for Sportpunter, that usually means breaking even or a small loss. Not really much to talk about this week, still working on my Football portfolio, and researching a few new Horse tipsters. You’ll also notice that there are now no affiliate ads on the site at all. I will write about that if I have time this week.
Sportpunter Tennis lost $2,000 on ATP and $1,300 on the WTA. There wasn’t much bet on the AFL but it made $2,900. The baseball totals fell off a cliff this week, A massive $9,500 loss. Never seen anything like that before. The Rugby season ended with yet another win for $1,350 profit and I will do my season review soon. The NRL continues on its winning ways with a further $500 profit.
ClubGowi has been on a fantastic run recently. $3,600 profit this week and over $10k profit for the last month and a bit. Life is a lot more relaxing when I’m not bothered with placing bets the second his emails come out. I now know I can’t beat a 5-30 second time disadvantage so don’t even bother. As long as I stick to my rules in regards to odds, then it should still be profitable.
Diamond Edge had a standout week with $4,700 profit and PCG lost $300. Again I was close in the Golf with a big bet on Sergio Garcia who led by 3 going into the final round, he crumbled and Rory took it out. At least it helps the long term GOWI bet which will return $6,000 if Rory wins the race to Dubai. Jason Kelly lost $400 and BetSWOT lost $600.
My first new add to the Soccer portfolio started this week. I am following Owltips at $100 a unit (most bets are 5 units). This service only provides bets on the Portuguese league and I am testing for a month to see if odds are attainable and if I like the general feel of the service. This week we lost the two opening bets of the season for -$1,000.
Sorry about the very short update, way too much going on at the moment. If you’re an aussie reading this, read the previous post about my new services results and second intake. You have until the end of today to join.
Good luck with this weeks punting.
[mc4wp_form]
Total Loss for the week was $2,103.40
Stats Year 5
Total bet amount: $620,608.00
Profit/Loss: $(7,267.21)
POT: -1.17%
Bets Placed: 790
Won: 356
Lost: 398
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 32
Winning %: 47.2%
Total profit per day: $340,257.63 / 1497 = $227.29
Total Turnover: $14,963,351.37
Total ROI: 2.27%
ATP – SP $134,861.00 $(10,553.69) -7.8%
week profit/loss: -2017.24
WTA – SP $92,440.00 $(1,026.38) -1.1%
week profit/loss: -1328.22
AFL H2H – SP $21,629.00 $8,537.10 39.5%
week profit/loss: 1018.50
AFL Line – SP $124,060.00 $(13,460.54) -10.9%
week profit/loss: 1917.75
SP MLB $83,684.00 $(9,342.08) -11.2%
week profit/loss: -9522.94
Rugby SP $12,378.00 $(671.50) -5.4%
week profit/loss: 1360
NRL SP $12,337.00 $5,181.30 42.0%
week profit/loss: 533.75
ClubGowi $52,349.00 $10,251.10 19.6%
week profit/loss: 3588
GOWI $2,157.00 $869.00 40.3%
week profit/loss: 0
Diamond Edge $49,000.00 $4,856.50 9.9%
week profit/loss: 4682
PCG $29,785.00 $2,039.98 6.8%
week profit/loss: -285
Jason Kelly Golf $1,825.00 $(1,225.00) -67.1%
week profit/loss: -425
Betswot $3,103.00 $(1,723.00) -55.5%
week profit/loss: -625
OwlTips $1,000.00 $(1,000.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -1000
Gowi has updated his results from Janaury 2013 to August 3rd 2014.American Football: Bets 55, Turnover 30,300, Profit + 9,920, ROI + 32.74%
Tennis: Bets 140, Turnover 65,970, Profit 18,689 , ROI +28.33 %
Steve do you know If much of the profits on those markets are from Antepost bets ?
A very convenient time for him to update. If its from Jan then yes, that would include his antepost bets. What wonderful returns that all his customers can expect to receive.
I will post my figures next to his figures for the same period in the next weekly update.
Hey Steve,
Interested to hear why you decided to trial OwlTips. Clearly his record is impressive, but it looks like bets will be sent out anywhere from a day before to 10 minutes before a game and 10-20% of bets will be ‘Live In Play’. Have you decided to not place those ones?
Look forward to hearing how the service performs and whether the odds are obtainable.
Cheers,
John
Hey John, I’ll test most things, as you said, the results look impressive, so it’s a matter of testing and seeing if odds are attainable. The time of bets is perfect for me, they come out between 6-9pm and like last season, I’ll probabaly stay up to watch the matches.
Steve,
If you couldn’t get on with sportpunter (were in the wrong hemisphere, as a lot of the blog readers are) – do you know what your figures would look like with no SP bets?
Cheers
It depends what SP model you are talking about. If it’s AFL then yes, the lines move by at least 2-5 points if its a big bet. It hasnt happened as much this season, but last season I won and lost a few bets by half a point. I think it would still be profitable, but you will not win as much as others. With Tennis I usually beat closing odds so again you will win less. Most good tipsters move a market and you really need to get on early.
Thanks Steve, but what I’m saying is that if you decide not to bet SP i.e. I’m not even considering them, do you know what your blog figures would look like if you had never bet any SP bets?
Ahh, my mistake. I thought you meant if you bet late.
Yes, I could easily find that data, and I’m sure it would be breakeven at best.
Last year SP models made 183k profit and everything else lost 23k
I believe SP is the only service keeping me in profit while I continue to search for anyone else even as half decent as him.
Gotcha – thanks Steve. That’s as I suspected! Cheers
“As long as I stick to my rules in regards to odds” – What are your rules Steve? EG. Don’t bet odds under 1.4 or something? Cheers
I can’t work out how he’s got 20% ROI for 2014 ? Mine’s about a quarter of that.
Possibly including some winning ante-posts from last year ?
These are rules specific for GOWI, I won’t bet on anything that is >7% worse then his recorded odds. Anything worse is breakeven at best
When you record whatever odds you like, have no actual proof of anything then you can show some quite amazing numbers. My own bets currently hit at 120% ROI, but don’t ask me to be transparent about them.
Yeah, wish he were a bit more transparent, but that’s his business, I guess.
His prices vanish too fast for my liking. In two minds about this guy; may just be too much hassle at the end of the day.
May I ask what is your average stake as a % of your full money? And how many times you roll over your bankroll in a month or in a year?
My average stake is around $600. My bank is my profit plus my 25k starting bank, so around 350k. As I tell everyone, you should not be betting if you need the money. My goal is to keep building and turnover over my fund every year for at least 10 years. Then I will take it out.
So my avg bet size is 0.17% of my bank. I do occasionally bet over 2% of my bank on an AFL line bet.
I was thinking maybe you could share your blank scoresheet w formulas for a better results tracking for your readers. Hope it’s not too much 🙂
This is the spreadsheet I use, it is amazing
http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/
Just thought i might add something to this. I have not been following Gowie as long as Steve and stake no where near his level 100 per point down from 190(was over staking i believe due to working outs based on gowies ‘results’). I was reading about a guy Rowan gambling in a similar way following gowie. He attempts to put bets on strait away and allows 5% and then waits for prices to rebound and finally bets in play. I have started using a similar system but have tweeked it a little. At my stakes with my bookies I am getting 97% odds but missed 2 bets one of each. Small samlpe but i believe it is how most of his followers do it(tonight i just added one more piece to the puzzle but this has become a long post so i wont go into it yet but i think it has pottential especially for small bettors)
PS Any must have soccer bookies and any experience with the slow movingbookies with top odds on betbrain B2B etc
PSS About to sign up with 5 dimes anything i need to know
I believe a move from Keith to releasing just before the games would help all members get prices, but this would cut into what profit he can show on his site, sadly we just need to accept that he wont change, he will make people between 0-5% long term, which is fantastic.
I only use the big guys as there is no use placing $25 at 20 separate books.
with 5dimes, i think they have 2 offers (this was years ago when i signed up), either a bonus or reduced odds, reduced odds is much better
Hi Steve and thank you for all the work you are doing for your readers.
First of all sorry my english is not perfect – (we had a quick chat on SBC a few days ago when I asked you about Football Investor)
Anyway, maybe a naive question (I am a 3 years experience bettor, losing the first 2 years), I was wondering why this problem with GOWI but apparently not so much with other tipsers?
I did tail GOWI for 2 months and was happy but it was annoying to wait for the email and rush to try to get the odds on Pinnacle.
Why would GOWI have more followers than any other good tipsers?
Hi mate,
I believe Gowi has been around for many years and has built up a big following, I haven’t found many others who have been around as long and continue to make a profit.
The problem on the line moves is purely based on his success, he now has so many members betting very large sums, no matter what bet he advises, the odds will fall within seconds. His service is then a race to be the fastest (a race I can’t win from my location). I have no problem with this.
My issue and a lot of others is his odds recording and transparency. Everything else about the service is fantastic. It won’t suit everyone, but if the release times suit you then it’s a great service.
With an service, you will need to test what works for you. With Football Investor, I wait until the day of the game to bet as I am asleep when the email arrives.
thanks for your quick reply
i also wanted to ask, why this rule of ” I won’t bet on anything that is >7% worse then his recorded odds”? Did you check like his past results and assumed that a difference of 7% would still be allright for your own profits ? or ?…
Yeah like I said I was happy with the service, even if result wise clearly my profit was inferior to what he says on his website
From my limited data, I believe what I can expect from his service is between a 0-7% return on turnover. So if I am betting anything that is 7% less then his odds they will give me a negative return.
ok, thanks mate. GL for today