Ahh, that was a much more relaxing week. Not watching the AFL was helped by all the early mornings watching the World Cup, so I was able to sleep through most of them. But as usual, I made my now customary fu*kup which cost me dearly. This weeks result once again should be well over the $20k mark but on saturday, still bleary eyed from getting up so early, i was prepared for the AFL and the player based model did not come out on time. I noticed the team based was up and assumed (wrongly), that it would be close to the player based model. It said to place a big bet on the West Coast line. When the player based came out the percentage was very very different and it was actually meant to be a bet on Gold Coast. I’m so glad I did not have to sit through this game, it would have destroyed me. The line I had was West Coast -7.5. They were up by 39 points heading into the last quarter and managed to win by just 3. This resulted in a model win but a big loss for me. I lost $5k when I should have made $3.5k. But the money aside, the difference in feelings was huge, all I saw was the score and was pissed for a few minutes that my mistake had cost me again, it was only when I went back over how the game played out that I realised I had saved myself a world of hurt. The same happened in the Essendon game, where a huge lead was let go.
Feeling very relaxed on Roatán
Watching the games is a habit that has been formed over the past 4 years, it is going to be hard to break, and at times I still want to watch them. I know one game isn’t going to have a huge impact on my total profit, but in the moment, all my potential winnings and how the future looks is concentrated on that one result. Personally I love the sports that are played overnight such as the Tennis and american sports. I place my bets before heading to bed and then in the morning I punch in the results. No stress whatsoever. The best I can do is set some rules for the upcoming soccer season. I was staying up every Saturday night well past 4am to keep an eye on the results. I usually had close to $100,000 on these games and it was very exciting and also terrible on my bank this season. I’m going to cut back to a maximum of 2 Saturdays per month for year 5, and then hopefully just the once each month in year 6.
Onto a great week and most of the profit is thanks to a return to form of the AFL model. A great head to head win on the Western bulldogs at odds of $8 saw $11,500 profit for the week. The Tennis model also did well overnight as the players move to grass, a perfect 6 from 6 and $4,300 profit this week. The NRL model made $1,950 and the baseball totals had a loss of $1,400.
ClubGowi returned $1,700 and the unofficial bets had a nice winner with an early tournament bet on Dimitrov which produced $2,550 profit. The golf did not do well, Jason Kelly losing $850 and Betswot $350 down. ProComputerGambler lost $400 and I may as well reveal the “other mlb” model as prices actually improve before the start of games. It is from Stat Attack Sports and this week it lost a massive $3,300.
In my daily life I use the Pareto principle a fair bit and have talked about it on the blog before. It is more widely known as the 80/20 principle. It can pretty much be used to describe most things. In essence it says to find the 20% of work that produces 80% of profit. With my portfolio we can clearly see the 20% of tipsters who make up well over 80% of my profit. It can also be used to show that 80% of my profits will come from just 20% of the year (which has been proved time and time again). Sportpunter is the only consistent tipster I follow, but ClubGowi is slowly becoming the second one. While I feel he does many things wrong in the way he runs his service, the results are stellar. I can’t recommend his service as it goes against everything I feel a tipster should do in regards to running a service (transparency, odds, so on). If these issues were address then this site would become a Keith love fest, I’d happily put banners up for free telling all to join, actually I should do that for Sportpunter. But sometimes you just need to go with your gut with a service and my gut says ClubGOWI will make me long term profits. If I had just followed Sportpunter this year I would be sitting on $170,000, take out my mistakes and we are talking closer to $200k. I feel I make more mistakes then most and there are many others I talk to with a much better portfolio making triple my ROI. I have just been fortunate to find the best tipster in the world and his results have shielded me while I continue to try and find others that will eventually lead to even greater profits. I’ll keep learning and making mistakes and learning from those mistakes and then making new mistakes. I guess by year 10 I might have sorted everything out and then things might start to click.
Very happy with my relaxing week, even if it had been a losing one, it would have been much less stressful then the prior weeks. I’m off to bed to prepare for another long night/early morning of great World Cup soccer.
If you haven’t joined the mailing list yet then be quick as a new email will be going out this weekend with some interesting news.
[mc4wp_form]
Total profit for the week was $15,626.18
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $4,298,467.84
Profit/Loss: $130,359.86
POT: 3.03%
Bets Placed: 7,132
Won: 2649
Lost: 4117
Half Payout: 47
Refunded: 319
Winning %: 39.2%
Total profit per day: $317,881.95 / 1448 = $219.53
Total Turnover: $14,047,447.37
Total ROI: 2.25%
ATP – SP $538,007.00 $4,284.46 0.8%
week profit/loss: 4267.26
AFL H2H – SP $100,944.00 $11,071.60 11.0%
week profit/loss: 8842.50
AFL Line – SP $565,442.00 $62,906.28 11.1%
week profit/loss: 2618.08
SP MLB $74,447.00 $3,378.87 4.5%
week profit/loss: -1423.66
Rugby SP $44,697.00 $18,898.37 42.3%
week profit/loss: 0
NRL SP $39,986.00 $6,919.22 17.3%
week profit/loss: 1950
ClubGowi $365,306.00 $16,612.71 4.5%
week profit/loss: 1703.50
GOWI $6,005.00 $(258.00) -4.3%
week profit/loss: 2557
Diamon Edge $112,000.00 $(1,772.50) -1.6%
week profit/loss: -3299.50
PCG $44,530.00 $(1,913.24) -4.3%
week profit/loss: -389
Jason Kelly Golf $1,975.00 $(1,975.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -850
Betswot $1,430.00 $3,950.50 276.3%
week profit/loss: -350