WOOOHHHOOOOOOO
11 days short of my second year of betting, I have passed the magic 6 figures profit mark. The past 720 days have been crazy, exhausting, scary, fun, boring, exhilarating and a million other emotions that come with risking a hell of a lot of money each and every day on a simple hypothesis that a mathematical program can find value in sports betting. I’ve been through the early success of my profit hitting $40,000 within 4 months of starting, and then plunging to a loss of $8,000 in September 2011, where I had serious thoughts about packing this whole thing in. I was actually at the home of gambling (Vegas) when things started to turnaround and since then it has been a steady growth to $100,000.
Lets first do a quick review of this week and then I’ll get into all the stats and add some pretty pictures on my next post.
AFL as per usual is amazing, the model has always been a stand-out, but this season is something I doubt can be recreated. $1,000 lost on H2H with so many dogs losing by under a kick. The Line produced another $6,000 profit. To put it simply, your an idiot if you aren’t subscribed to this model. To make it even easier, here is a direct link to signup. If there is one takeaway from me making 100k it’s that this model is amazing. I will get into more details in my next post, but it has contributed 60% of my total profit.
Tennis has moved to grass and with it the ATP has had some really nice dogs getting up. Nadal must have been tired and wanting some rest, and other large wins by opposing Federer and Tsonga this week resulted in $3,700 profit. WTA broke even thanks largely to Sam Stosur going down last night to someone ranked 250 places below her.
Finally, Horse racing picked up again this week with most of the profit coming in the last two days. I have been working hard to get the best possible odds and am doing a lot of analysis to see what the best options are. A nice $4,700 profit has put it back on track.
I assumed this was a slow period as I am betting on so few sports, but these 3 models are the ones I have a lot of confidence in and it is showing in my profits.
Just a note that today as I was looking through my spreadsheet, I noticed an error in the total column for amount bet, it had not added some columns, so instead of being just over $5million bet, it is now $5.6million bet. Not a big issue, but does change my ROI.
A brilliant return this week and a very special week it is. The next post will be all about the $100,000 mark and a breakdown of everything.
Total profit for the week was $13,494.41
AFL $106,057.00 $1,804.73 1.7%
week profit/loss: -948
AFL line $410,425.00 $73,171.91 17.8%
week profit/loss: 6167.75
Tennis – ATP $783,184.13 $33,076.24 4.2%
week profit/loss: 3710.70
WTA – Tennis $809,342.00 $5,481.84 0.7%
week profit/loss: -157.54
New Horses $175,949.18 $32,902.48 18.7%
week profit/loss: 4723.50
Stats
Total bet amount: $5,673,642.62
Profit/Loss: $104,863.69
POT: 1.8%
Bets Placed: 13,424
Won: 5,489
Lost: 7,493
Half Payout: 4
Refunded: 438
Winning %: 42.3%
Profit per day: 104,863.69 / 720 = $145.64