Mar 26th – Apr 1st +$11,243.11
An early weekly update as I only have 1 bet tonight and there will be some more important news on the blog tomorrow. Last night I went to bed just $2,000 shy of finally hitting that $100,000 mark and once again I woke up with loss after loss from FB Elite and ClubGOWI bets to end up $6,000 away. It really would have been a great ending to a very strange week. With close to $200,000 bet this week it really did have it all. A rookie mistake on the AFL, some very close wins and me once again stupidly watching all the games. I’ll never ever get used to these swings. Lets get into it.
If you haven’t read the article below then read that first. Pretty much I f*&ked up and placed a $10,000 bet on the wrong team and was going to let it ride. But before the game the line came back in and decided I should do the right thing and cancelled out that bet and placed the proper bet. My mistake would have actually made me $21,000 but instead cost me $11,000. A $32,000 swing all due to one player being ruled out a few hours before the game. At the end of the day I did the right thing but it still hurts. AFL was so stressful this week, especially for the idiot who watched every game. First we had Richmond scoring with 3 seconds left to win the bet, then we had the Hawthorn line lose which set me back massively. Then St kilda managed to comeback from 20 points down in the 3rd to win its bet and in the last game North Melbourne kicked away right at the end to also cover. $6,200 profit and a vow to only watch 1 game a week.
The ATP made $570 but continues to bet massively against Nadal, really need one of these to come in soon. The Rugby models finally had a flat week with the Union adding $1,000 and League losing $750. The NHL turnaround has been amazing to watch and added a further $1,750 this week. We are into the finals of NBL and that lost $1,300.
Nics picks lost $500 and is back into negative.
3 out of 5 Soccer tipster were profitable this week. FB Elite had a massive win with Crystal Palace and some other wins on Saturday and then gave a heap back last night. It has 1 game to go tonight but is up $3,700. It should have been more as I place a ClubGOWI bet on the opposite side and this lost, costing me $2,500 profit. So a great week for Football Elite. Skeeve also made his first profit in a while, adding $4,300. There is a heap I want to save about the Skeeve emails this past week but it isn’t worth the effort. Combo Football Investor had the worst week I can remember for it, losing $3,350. TFA lost midweek but won on the weekend to end up with a tiny $800 profit. ClubGOWI lost $1,800 and I’m hoping for one of those great monthly results that happened before I joined the service. Saturday night was actually very profitable and it was good to have that winning feeling for a night.
Really wished I had hit that $100,000 mark to round out the week, but it wasn’t to be. The swings once again were huge this week and I’m just happy to have made a very healthy profit. As mentioned earlier, a big post coming tomorrow.
Total profit for the week was $11,243.11
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $3,180,557.84
Profit/Loss: $93,952.98
POT: 2.95%
Bets Placed: 5,451
Won: 1976
Lost: 3194
Half Payout: 29
Refunded: 252
Winning %: 38.2%
Total profit per day: $281,475.07 / 1371 = $205.30
Total Turnover: $12,930,387.37
Total ROI: 2.18%
ATP – SP $366,963.00 $6,391.55 1.7%
week profit/loss: 570.25
AFL H2H – SP $45,495.00 $10,406.40 22.9%
week profit/loss: 2087.65
AFL Line – SP $285,203.00 $42,959.93 15.1%
week profit/loss: 4134.04
Rugby SP $24,008.00 $16,202.12 67.5%
week profit/loss: 1018.30
NRL SP $14,159.00 $7,201.15 50.9%
week profit/loss: -745.35
FB Elite $233,000.00 $4,989.00 2.1%
week profit/loss: 3710
Skeeve $115,948.00 $(5,426.40) -4.7%
week profit/loss: 4329.30
Combo FI $129,215.00 $11,652.38 9.0%
week profit/loss: -3350
TFA $590,376.00 $(51,881.58) -8.22%
week profit/loss: 825.50
ClubGowi $227,377.00 $6,033.90 2.7%
week profit/loss: -1809.40
NP Win $22,610.84 $(212.34) -0.9%
week profit/loss: -481.50
NHL Totals $271,578.00 $9,313.68 3.4%
week profit/loss: 1754.32
NBL Totals $100,787.00 $28,439.64 28.2%
week profit/loss: -1180
NBL Line $104,472.00 $23,789.83 22.8%
week profit/loss: -120
AFL was painful this week. I placed a much smaller bet on the St Kilda line (one of the few times I’ll go against Jonno’s picks), and it was painful seeing Hawthorn’s inept second half send me deep into the red and then see the Saints come back and win what should have been enough to cover Hawthorn’s losses.
The model does love St Kilda and their lines always go down to the wire, I remember some half point wins and losses on them last season. So far 2 from 2 this year
It really does, last year the model was slow to react to them but eventually yielded some big wins. I based my decision to not back St Kilda on how machine learning approaches usually work – there’s going to be a learning parameter the magnitude of which can sometimes make models slow to large scale changes in a team. GWS’s win over the Swans made me feel that the team had changed dramatically enough over the season gap that the model was probably going to underestimate them for at least the first few rounds, and we kind of saw that. GWS looked to be the better team until mid way through the third, when they started to run out of legs.
It’ll certainly be interesting to see how both the bookmakers and the model pegs them over the early season. There’ll be plenty of value to be had if the model is able to get a more accurate picture of the teams evolution than the market, it’ll just depend on how sensitive the learning parameters are.
I had the same thoughts too, but the model rated GWS a big line bet over the swans which won easily, so if anything, its rating would have gone up massively after round 1, the fact that St Kilda was still a large bet was good enough for me.
I also know that if I had to choose between my thoughts and those of the Sportpunter model, I know which way I would go ever time.
I have noticed it before with the Sportpunter Tennis model, it took forever for Raonic to be rated correctly and now it is rating Nadal lower then he should be.
These aren’t perfect models, but they are the best I have come across. Hopefully the bookmakers keep getting it wrong on GWS and all the other teams.
What happens when you get to a 100K profit? Any plans to increase your stake size?
Nope, it’s just a little goal I have been chasing for the last 4 years. The current stakes are more then enough for the coming years. P/L range is from -200k to $500k.