Another roller-coaster week of results. By Friday the total profit was up to an all time high of $72,500. By Monday morning it was down $22,000 to just above $50,000. I knew the run had to come to an end eventually and it came in a big way. But then on Monday I saw an email from TFA and Combo about the Monday night games in English soccer. There were only a few bets, and all on outsiders. I woke up this morning to an amazing return of $10,000. The best result being Rochdale scoring in the 87th and 90th minute to win their game. That made this weeks loss a very small one compared to what it could have been.
The other big news this week is the start of the MLB season, and I will be following the Sportpunter/CRDOG model. Last season totals returned over 9% and as it takes no extra time to place H2H bets and to help variance, I will be betting both H2H and Totals this year with a $75,000 bank at 1/15th Kelly. A ROC of anything over 50% will be seen as a success.
So I have been going on about the AFL player based model like a schoolboy in love with his kindergarten teacher. The results for this week could only really go one way after I waxed so lyrical about the beauty of this new model. A loss of $11,000 gave me a real good kicking in the bollocks. I’ll temper my exuberance for this model over the next few weeks to get a better understanding of what it might do.
Tennis made $1,800, but that was all due to one bet on Haas to beat Djokovic. The rest of the week was terrible as every bet was opposing Murray. The NBL only has 3 games to go now and this week saw a $900 profit. MLB started this morning and with a few results to still come in we are down $700 so far.
Onto Soccer and XX Draws continues it’s slide for 2013 losing another $5,100 this week. I’m really hoping for some wins in the last few weeks of the season to at least break even. After having a closer look at this model, even though I feel the idea is sound and really respect Cassini, I don’t think I will continue on with it next season. The major concerns being the odds I get compared to the recorded ones and the simple fact that most games are also bets for other systems, and this overlap is something I need to think about next season. FB Elite lost $2,900, some close big prices losing again. Skeeve made $1,500 and is only 1 more good week from breaking even. Combo FI returned to form with $3,100 profit. The big profit once again comes from TFA Established, with $10,600 added to the pot. TFA Euro added an extra $1,200. TFA and Combo FI have returned $81,500 this season. A fantastic return, it shows that a diverse portfolio can help when the models you think will return the profit don’t perform in a season.
All up a tiny loss for the week and with AFL and MLB back and Soccer in full swing, there will be a lot of turnover this coming week. A big profit or loss coming up.
Total loss for the week was $1,115.59
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $2,822,640.91
Profit/Loss: $63,374.01
POT: 2.25%
Bets Placed: 4,479
Won: 1,808
Lost: 2,541
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 128
Winning %: 41.6%
Profit per day: $179,457.73 / 1007 = $178.21
AFL H2H – SP $37,996.00 $10,442.75 27.5%
week profit/loss: -1364.10
AFL Line – SP $204,071.00 $(15,522.81) -7.6%
week profit/loss: -9593
ATP – SP $360,482.00 $2,589.07 0.7%
week profit/loss: 1858.50
OTP NRL $10,500.00 $(2,337.50) -22.3%
week profit/loss: -590
NBL Totals $118,588.00 $(4,309.41) -3.6%
week profit/loss: 1012.70
NBL Line $73,497.00 $7,842.78 10.7%
week profit/loss: -160
MLB H2H $1,921.00 $(1,467.75) -76.4%
week profit/loss: -1467.75
MLB Totals $2,585.00 $732.06 28.3%
week profit/loss: 732.06
XX Draws $57,500.00 $(12,985.00) -22.6%
week profit/loss: -2000
XX Draws Under $57,500.00 $(4,729.50) -8.2%
week profit/loss: -1112.50
XX Extended $122,000.00 $12,766.00 10.5%
week profit/loss: -140
XX Extended Under $121,694.00 $1,603.00 1.3%
week profit/loss: -1899
FB Elite $254,819.00 $(5,114.97) -2.0%
week profit/loss: -2860
Skeeve $142,889.00 $(1,443.64) -1.0%
week profit/loss: 1520
Combo FI $206,229.00 $23,222.00 11.3%
week profit/loss: 3155
6-22 $69,090.00 $6,899.25 10.0%
week profit/loss: 3696.25
7-21 $110,360.00 $9,331.75 8.5%
week profit/loss: 540
7-22 $47,310.00 $4,925.25 10.4%
week profit/loss: 2531.25
8-21 $53,375.00 $5,582.88 10.5%
week profit/loss: 1923.75
8-22 $30,013.00 $1,584.13 5.3%
week profit/loss: 1927.50
E1-E7 $60,455.00 $3,409.01 5.6%
week profit/loss: -108.75
E2-E6 $68,287.00 $9,752.39 14.3%
week profit/loss: 266.25
E2-E7 $34,875.00 $8,889.76 25.5%
week profit/loss: 1016.25
E3-E6 $26,250.00 $3,445.50 13.1%
week profit/loss: 0
E3-E7 $14,625.00 $4,417.50 30.2%
week profit/loss: 0