Another terrible week and I’m really starting to get over everything. It’s not the time involved (which is less then 5 hours per week), or even the constant swings and emotional roller-coaster that are beginning to really piss me off. It’s more in my faith that the models that I am following are actually profitable. At the moment, I am betting heavily on AFL, MLB, Tennis and Horse racing. I thought having this diversity was a good thing, as a bad week in one sport would be covered by others and vice versa. I don’t want to rely on just the one or two models as any of them could easily have a losing year. The one model I had complete faith in, has destroyed my profits in the last few weeks. The model I always thought was a bit iffy is responsible for almost $50,000 profit and has been consistently good from day 1. Another that had an amazing stable record of winning years has been down massively early in the year and has returned to profit and then some in the last few months. As I write this I realise it sounds stupid, this is what betting is and I should be dealing with the ups and downs equally. But if I am not confident that I will be making a profit at all then I shouldn’t be betting. On the other hand, I really want this to become my main source of income. The benefits are clear to see, It takes very little time to place and record bets, which in turn allows me to pursue other things I am interested in, it’s tax free, It allows me to make enough frequent flyer miles to travel the world. But these are benefits only if it is profitable.
My profit still stands at over $15,000. But in the last 9 months it has not moved. It has had a high of $47,000 and a low of $9,000. I’m really not sure what to do at the moment. I guess the old British maxim is a good one for such an occasion. Keep Calm and Carry On. 365 days isn’t far off and that’s when I will really sit down and take a long hard look at the past year and see if improvements can be made and to ask the biggest question of all. Should I continue?
Lets start this week with the positives. MLB had lower turnover this week as I do not bet when Interleague is on. Another $2,200 profit was made over 4 days. Men’s Tennis continues its recent great form with $3,100 profit, while the Yang this week was the women’s, losing $2,100. This model seems to never have both sides winning at the same time. This week is all about the French open, so a much higher turnover this week. The formbet golfing model had a win with Poulter in the Matchplay for $900 profit.
AFL cost me another $11,000 this week. Most games were not even close. This is my most heavily bet sport in terms of Kelly percentage. There are usually only a small amount of bets per week but at an average betsize of around $2,000, a few losses add up quickly. This coming week could break my bank and put me into negative territory for the first time.
Formbet ratings have again been woeful with a $6,500 loss. Dave keeps saying to keep in the game, its all about the long term profits. I agree 100% with this, but what is long term? I have now been following the model for the past 6 months and it is down. 6 months is long term in my eyes. I did double my betsize a few months ago and this has resulted in a greater loss, but I’m just not sure about the long term viability of this service. I feel its more that I hope this service works, as it is so simple to set and forget it. But it is giving me the most headaches, waking up each morning to my betfair profit and loss screen to see another negative balance does not make me a happy camper for the rest of the day.
I’m going to try something new this week, here goes. I hope I have a terrible week.
Total loss for the week was $13,765.29
Baseball $296,072.01 $18,232.30 6.2%
Week profit/loss: 739.71
Baseball Line $359,238.00 $29,032.46 8.1%
Week profit/loss: 1484.21
AFL $49,298.00 $(4,117.79) -8.4%
Week profit/loss: -2712
AFL line $93,812.00 $4,141.58 4.4%
Week profit/loss: -4316
AFL Totals $65,976.00 $(1,271.50) -1.9%
Week profit/loss: -3783.50
Tennis – ATP $283,716.00 $8,824.42 3.1%
Week profit/loss: 3160.87
WTA – Tennis $273,794.00 $(2,839.77) -1.0%
Week profit/loss: -2124.83
NRL $20,472.00 $(4,914.69) -24.0%
Week profit/loss: -438.75
Golf $14,827.00 $(7,085.25) -47.8%
Week profit/loss: 900
Formbet $57,151.00 $(7,947.00) -13.9%
Week profit/loss: -6548
Stats
Total bet amount: $2,662,174.37
Profit/Loss: $15,494.36
POT: 0.6%
Bets Placed: 6,747
Won: 2,706
Lost: 3,795
Half Payout: 3
Refunded: 243
Winning %: 41.6%
Profit per day: 15,494.36 / 328 = $47.23