Nov 17th – Nov 23rd
Garr, some weeks i should just stay in bed. Last week I missed the big NBL bet by about 5 minutes and it won, this week i manage to get it on with 1 minute to spare and it loses badly. NBL after such a great start has crashed and burned and has cost me over $4,000 so far this year. NCAA has been even worse with over $4.5k lost at -30% POT. NBA Totals keeps going well, but the total profit for NBA keeps being dragged down by the Line bets. Total profit is $1.6k at 2.63% POT. After all my whining about NHL it is now in a small profit with a 3% POT.
I have started following my first ever non SP model. It’s a horse racing one, in the past I have never had any success with these. This one has a strong history that has been proofed.
Here’s hoping for a brilliant week, but I’m pretty sure I’ll be in the same dour mood next week, I see no way in which my bank will increase substantially with the current way things are going. Once again i hope the gambling gods will prove me wrong. 🙂
Total loss for the week was $4113
Stats
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Total bet amount: $904,256.01
Profit/Loss: $32,942.86
POT: 3.6%
Bets Placed: 2,179
Won: 953
Lost: 1157
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 68
Winning %: 45.2%
Profit per day: 32,942.86 / 146 = $225
Whats your minimum overlay in the NBA for the lines?
Keep the chin up too lad, I think everyone’s having a terrible last few weeks with little hope in sight
Min overlay was set at 17.5%. But as of yesterday I have stopped NCAA and NBA lines. I will continue with NBA totals and have started following Kiwi’s picks on the Sportpunter forum. These were the first 2 models I have ever quit using and it was hard to stop. But after a total of $8,000 lost between the two, I really had no other choice.
Thanks for the kind words Dooncan
I pushed my min overlay out to 20% and so far have a roi of about 7%. That said if today goes down compltely it could turn that around to negaitves
Oh and I dropped NCAA too, too much chasing odds around and not being able to get the right lines with not a big profit margin.
Is there a reason you went to 20%. Jonno’s analysis said 17.5% was the best overlay. Yesterdays game hurt with a 1 point loss