Nov 24th – Nov 30th

I have no idea how I could have possibly profited this last week, but I have. This week saw me lose at least 2 years of my life and many strands of hair. I sat down to watch two games of NBL which had fairly large under and over bets. Both lines were 160.5. Both games finished at 160 points. I was on the wrong side of both games by 0.5 points. It was the worst I have ever felt this past 5 months of betting. This pushed my losses for NBL out to over $6,500 and it was hard for me to continue, especially since the next bet was the biggest one for the season. $2,200 on the under 164.5. I decided to keep the faith and it romped in. That leaves me at -$4,560 for the season with a -13% POT.

This week also saw the total profit dip back under the 30k mark. I know the numbers mean very little, but psychologically it had a big impact on me. I started to wonder if all the work had been worth it. If I take away the AFL, MLB and Soccer profits, then the other 9 sports combined have been a massive let-down. Maybe I should just be betting the sports that have proven themselves. But then I talk myself out of it by saying diversity is the key. I really have no idea which way to go, but for the first year at least, I’ll stick to betting on all sports, but any sport that goes over a 10k loss will be stopped.

I was whining about soccer over the last few weeks, but it has really stepped up lately and H2H, Overs and Unders are now all in profit. I am now over the $10k profit mark with $245k bet at a POT of 4.4%. There seem to be a lot less bets as well on Saturdays and Sundays, or I am just getting quicker at placing them. Either way, I will be sticking with soccer for a while yet.

Thank god the ATP season is over, the last week wiped out all my profits with every single bet losing. ATP finished the season with a -5.3% POT while WTA finished with 17.6% POT. Will be waiting for the new model to perform as well as the new WTA one in the new year and hope to see a few games down in Melbourne again. I was lucky enough to be in the crowd watching last years final between Fed and Murray and that last set tiebreaker was something special to experience.

NCAA continues to disappoint and with the discrepancies in the results history and the actual lines I can get, I don’t see anyway that the model can make a profit. I’m almost $5,000 down and this might be the first sport that I stop following.

The Horse racing model has not started well and is currently at -19% POT, but as it picks high odds horses, it will only take 1 or 2 coming in for that to turn to profit.

Total profit for the week was $3207

Stats

Total bet amount: $950,662.01
Profit/Loss: $36,149.81
POT: 3.8%

Bets Placed: 2,335
Won: 1,017
Lost: 1,244
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 73
Winning %: 45%

Profit per day: 36,149.81 / 153 = $236