Nov 6th – Nov 12th +$8,112.78
Back to back profits and was very close to being just $3,000 down for the season, but a poor Sunday night moved it back out to 5 figures. The worst loss was an NBL over that needed just 1 point with 1 minute left. A free throw was missed and then 5 shots in the last 10 seconds. That was a $7,000 turnaround. With an FA Cup weekend on, there wasn’t much soccer betting. Some of the American sports have started to pick up but NHL continue to under perform. Any time in the next month and a half I could go to positive or hit that -$50,000 loss again. Should be an interesting end of year.
Tennis ended the season very badly. $3,400 lost this week and that’s it for the 2013 season. From Jan 1st, Tennis turnover was $483,413 and profit was $41,308.54. That’s a ROI of 8.5%. A great season in my eyes but I was lucky to miss a terrible month. The vast majority of the profit came in the first half of the season, with the second 6 months making just $8,000 but if I had been betting in October then I would have broken even for the last 6 months of the year. I believe next season (which starts in just 4 weeks), I will raise my bank slightly from $75,000 to $90,000.
Only a few Soccer bets this week and they all made a profit. FB Elite had an amazing Saturday night then a dreadful Sunday night but made $1,900. TFA made a tiny $85 and Combo had the one bet for $1,100 profit. No midweek bets but hopefully a big weekend coming up to take another chunk out of the current $53,000 loss.
NFL continued it’s comeback (the one that started last week which Jonno did not upload in time), with another $5,000 profit this week. NHL lost $4,100 this week but I still have hopes for a good season. NBA Totals made a healthy $3,100 with a very nice over win that had no chance before going into double OT. The totals are still in negative but traditionally the early season totals perform amazingly. The H2H bets normally don’t perform as well but this season is an exception. I bet much lower on H2H bets but that didn’t stop it making another $5,200 this week with some big wins on the buzzer for the Lakers and Boston. The NBL contributed again with $2,900 profit, but was very close to another $10,000 weeekend. Still having to split my bets across numerous bookies with max bets everywhere on the totals being $500. The Golf continues to not perform with a further $800 lost this week and only 1 more week left this season. Hoping for a great end.
Still unsure where I will end up at the end of the year. Let’s hope it’s in positive territory and then I hope we see a repeat of last January where Soccer made all it’s profit in just one month.
Total profit for the week was $8,112.78
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,174,317.00
Profit/Loss: $(11,363.60)
POT: -0.97%
Bets Placed: 1,926
Won: 685
Lost: 1201
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 39
Winning %: 36.3%
Total profit per day: $176,158.49 / 1231 = $143.10
Total Turnover: $10,924,146.53
Total ROI: 1.61%
ATP – SP $143,347.00 $8,335.87 5.8%
week profit/loss: -3395.76
FB Elite $43,000.00 $1,810.00 4.2%
week profit/loss: 1960
Skeeve $36,040.00 $(12,592.60) -34.9%
week profit/loss: 0
Combo FI $26,590.00 $(2,630.00) -9.9%
week profit/loss: 1150
TFA $229,421.00 $(39,675.50) -17.2%
week profit/loss: 85
NFL Totals $51,160.00 $(9,242.35) -18.1%
week profit/loss: 4970.86
NP Win $10,448.00 $(5,855.00) -56.0%
week profit/loss: -825
NHL Totals $36,139.00 $(2,485.00) -6.9%
week profit/loss: -4071.83
NBL Totals $25,030.00 $12,739.17 50.9%
week profit/loss: -371.60
NBL Line $18,440.00 $7,622.99 41.3%
week profit/loss: 3293.40
NBA Totals $33,455.00 $(2,242.39) -6.7%
week profit/loss: 3092.58
NBA H2H $17,215.00 $6,493.23 37.7%
week profit/loss: 5225.13
Hello mate,
this is one of the most useful betting blogs around and I just enjoy reading and keep cheering for you to reach your goal.
Let me just make a few comments from my experience.
Only way to win in soccer betting is either to follow a well informed bettor or to be informed yourself. No systems or whatsoever is going to bring you money in the long run. What is happenning with TFA was only to be expected. This one good week he had is just a glitch in a matrix. It’s always the same with systems, they can start enormously good, even for a few seasons, but in the end you are on the losing end.
Someone said in here that extrapolating prediction from past results is never a good thing. Very true. Also, one needs to be very careful with those SBC fellows that promote guys like TFA, seems to me they don’t know much about betting but are top class in – marketing.
Someone also mentioned clubgowi. Stay away, man is clearly a froad. No independent monitoring, no transparent archives. Had him once, nearly destroyed me with losing runs, odds inflated sometimes even by 20%. All he says is – I’ll be positive at the end of the season. I mean, does anyone believe that a normal person is capable of writing so many words in a single day!? There are fa better tipsters than him for far less money. He is one of the most expensive and certainly not worth 20% of that price.
Good luck.
Hey Kizo,
Thanks for the positive comments, love knowing that people actual enjoy reading about my silly little pastime 🙂
I actually feel differently to you, while I agree that being informed yourself would be ideal, it’s just not something I would want to devote my time too, so for me that option is out. I also do follow Skeeve who is known as a well informed bettor, he does all the research, knows a specific league and is still yet to make me a profit. If you know of any that wouldn’t mind sharing their info I would be happy to talk to them 🙂
I believe that Maths based systems can and do work in the world of sports betting. The only profitable models I follow are purely maths based (AFL, Tennis, other Sportpunter models). I think it relies on having a really good modeler. I do believe that TFA will turn around and continue its good run, we can’t have amazing seasons year after year.
I’m not a member of SBC so can’t really comment. But from what I’ve seen, they at least track results properly, which can only be a good thing.
I did have a look at the site and his record did look good, but I won’t be following for the reasons you expressed above and some others. There really be some very simple things tipsters do to look as legitimate as possible. Keep honest records (independently verified), Record prices the majority (>50%) can get and be as honest as possible on any difficulties that members may have placing bets. The issue is that this would leave about 5 tipsters in the world.
Once again thanks for your comment and good luck with your betting.
Steve
Hey Steve,
problem with Skeeve is 1) he is not a local tipster, he cannot see those matches live and can only rely on media news and 2) limits on those leagues are too low to follow for any kind of serious money and any kind of ambition.
Can you share results of Sportpunter in total? There is actually one more guy I found that a system worth following even though there were some killing swings recently.
TFA is out of my list forever simply because you can go bancrupt five times over before getting any kind of profit. This is because he cannot ne considered a serious punter in any way.
Yes, I do know some well informed and profitable tipsters. Don’t know if I should share them here or is it better to exchange over e-mail. Wouldn’t want to dissapoint anybody in case of bad runs.
Let’s stay in touch, you rarely find a meaningful discussion about betting like this one.
Good luck with your betting!
Best,
Kizo
The other problem with Skeeve is that I haven’t made a profit with the service 🙂
The last time I looked, which was maybe a month or two ago, Sportpunter models in total were in profit more then my total profit, so I have made over $180k with Sportpunter models. The big ones being AFL and Tennis.
When did you start following TFA? If it was this season then I can understand how you feel, but if you started last season or anytime before that and as long as you didn’t increase your bets, you would still be doing very well. Only time will tell if TFA’s edge will continue, as you know, I’m banking on it.
Hit me up at admin at this site (daily25.com) and we can talk over email.
Speak soon
Steve
Sure you did not hit any profit with Skeeve for reasons above!
Unfortunately, I did start to follow TFA this season but wouldn’t do that if I knew that I would be betting on an excel sheet, so serves me right.
Good to know about Sportpunter, and I see on his website he is up since 2002 which is obvioustly a big reference. But, he is as expensive as hell! Something else I wanted to know and that is his yield, wonder if you could share that.
Problem with systems is they simply stop working at one point. But, as I said, there might be some exceptions.
Best,
Kizo
Sportpunter also uses Excel sheets to get the bets. For Sportpunter, the amount you bet changes if you find better or worse odds, so excel is needed.
Yep, very expensive, but I’ve found that (in most cases) you pay for quality.
With regards to Yield, I use a moving bank for AFL and my Yield on the starting bank was over 100%, With Tennis it was around 80% per season.
Sadly in this game we are going to have winning and losing season, that’s why I won’t be increasing bets for quite some time. If AFL has a poor season then I could be in trouble, so I need to keep diversifying to decrease risk.
Yep, diversification is the name of the game in investing.
There should be some 15% in high risk investing, rest should be in more consistent tipsters.
ahh, to find a consistent tipster 🙂
Precisely why it is important for a tipster to have big and credible archive. Only that way you can ascertain his weak spots and how reliable he really is.