Nov 7th – Nov 13th -$9,156.36
Fucken shit. No other words describe how this current year is going. Saturday night saw the loss for the year down to just $8,000 before a disaster in all sports sent it back to -$26,000 in the space of 24 hours.
ATP ended for the year with another loss of $1,500. Lets have a look at the Sportpunter model for the 2012 seaso. I would say it takes me on average 15 minutes a day to place bets, so that’s 91 hours of my time, at an average wage of $20 per hour, I would hope to make $1,820 for the year as the worst possible outcome, otherwise I may as well spend my time flipping burgers at a fast food joint.
I stopped the WTA early this season as I knew it was doing a horrible job and after looking at the long term success I knew it was not worth the effort. In total I place 1,105bets, turned over $460,270, for a loss of 13,018.41. A ROI of -2.82%.
ATP did not fare much better. 1,118 bets, $458,334 bet for a $1,941.87 profit. A 0.4% ROI.
In total. 2,223 bets. $918,604 bet. $11,076.54 lost. -1.2% ROI.
These odds are slightly skewed as I increased my bank 50% for the last 4 months of the year and that resulted in a loss of $17,153. The Amount Of $4,2888 or More to the loss at a constant bank, but still results in a down year.
What does this mean for next year? It means WTA is gone for good. I will continue with ATP and see how it does next season. Over the 2 years and 4 months it is still up $26,000. So an average of $10,000 a year for 90 hours work will not be bad.
Lets move onto this shitty Week.
NBL lost $1,500. I really had high hopes for this model. A strong history in a weak market usually results in good results. Still many games to go. NBA made $2,000, but this model usually drops off after the first few weeks. I will need to re-evaluate after next month. I guess Basketball is the only other sport I am following until ATP starts next year. I’m not going to know what to do with all my free time during the week, O wait, I get to enjoy summer. woohooo
Onto Soccer, GARRRR. I think the losses here are my fault. I upped my stakes this season on FB Elite and Skeeve thinking these were the two strongest systems in my portfolio. I really have no idea why, as looking at my past results with these services, they have never returned much. I think my Skeeve banks are ok, and still have faith in the service. But FB Elite is another story. I tried to make each service return 20-75k and as FB Elite has so few bets per year, I needed to bet a much larger number. I will continue for the season, but if things continue, this one system has the potential to destroy my entire bank. Combined they have lost $18,100 in the last 4 months.
This week XX draws lost $2,000, FB Elite -$6,100, Skeeve -$2,100, TFA established made $2,000, but TFA Euro lost $4,000. Combo FI continues to be my shining star, making $4,000.
Nothing more to say, shit week.
Total loss for the week was $9,156.36
Stats Year 3
Total bet amount: $1,187,887.91
Profit/Loss: $(26,477.72)
POT: -2.23%
Bets Placed: 1,810
Won: 721
Lost: 1051
Half Payout: 2
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 40.7%
Profit per day: $89,606.00 / 867 = $103.35
ATP – SP $191,684.00 $(8,349.95) -4.4%
week profit/loss: -1540.30
NBL Totals $28,476.00 $1,596.67 5.6%
week profit/loss: -1747
NBL Line $14,966.00 $(3,925.20) -26.2%
week profit/loss: 249
NBA Totals $27,774.00 $5,314.89 19.1%
week profit/loss: 3279.06
NBA H2H $18,396.00 $285.85 1.6%
week profit/loss: -1190.88
XX Draws $20,000.00 $(20.00) -0.1%
week profit/loss: -740
XX Draws Under $20,000.00 $(3,855.50) -19.3%
week profit/loss: -1583.50
XX Extended $48,000.00 $6,381.50 13.3%
week profit/loss: 1725
XX Extended Under $48,000.00 $3,127.00 6.5%
week profit/loss: -1396.50
FB Elite $54,819.00 $(11,790.97) -21.5%
week profit/loss: -6099
Skeeve $68,614.00 $(6,361.04) -9.3%
week profit/loss: -2140
Combo FI $49,500.00 $13,965.50 28.2%
week profit/loss: 3974
6-22 $20,625.00 $5,036.25 24.4%
week profit/loss: 570
7-21 $24,750.00 $4,175.25 16.9%
week profit/loss: 0
7-22 $11,685.00 $1,286.25 11.0%
week profit/loss: 375
8-21 $12,375.00 $1,879.13 15.2%
week profit/loss: 341.63
8-22 $8,638.00 $(653.87) -7.6%
week profit/loss: 716.63
E1-E7 $9,375.00 $(1,122.00) -12.0%
week profit/loss: -2089.50
E2-E6 $8,625.00 $(1,338.75) -15.5%
week profit/loss: -108.75
E2-E7 $4,500.00 $(2,295.00) -51.0%
week profit/loss: -1571.25
E3-E6 $5,250.00 $(457.50) -8.7%
week profit/loss: 641.25
E3-E7 $3,375.00 $(1,170.00) -34.7%
week profit/loss: -821.25
You need to find a consistent staking plan and just stick to it rather than increasing stakes here and there mate. I also think you are trying to cover too many bases in terms of sports you are looking at. If you are spending a lot more time running around trying to get bets on then you have to add cost of your own time into the overall P&L. Bankroll management is vital for a project like this and you need to run some kind of Chi-Squared analysis on some of these ‘models’ to give strength of confidence/significance behind them in future as to whether to keep or ditch and how best to allocate stakes. Anyway, hope it picks up and let me know if you want to have a look at our 100% automated bot, it’s a time-saver and very profitable.
Hi Dave,
I increased stakes when I hit a long term goal of $100,000 profit. I moved my bank from $50,000 to $75,000.
This was the plan from the beginning, it just seems that I have hit a rough patch now, so am adding an extra 50% to the current losses.
I do think I am heavily weighted on soccer at the moment, and last week 3 seperate models had bets on each different outcome on a game, so i had varying stakes on home win, draw and away win. Soccer bets do not take too long. XX draws take 15minutes once a week, Skeeve take 15, FB Elite maybe 10. Only Combo FI and TFA take a bit of time, as there are usually 10-30 bets each week and I usually need to bet at more then one bookie. I would say all up, each saturday it would take an hour and a half to two hours. So not too much hassle.
Sadly I am not mathematically inclined and that is why I use these services. I have no idea what a chi-sqaured analysis is, but it sounds tasty. If you can spread some light on this and how I go about performing one then I will look into it.
Thanks for the kind words and the offer, but I won’t be following any horse racing tipsters for quite a while, a post I’ve been meaning to write for a while.
Yeah crossover bets are nasty…I’d still say 2 hours on Saturday is a lot of time just to place bets but depends what price you put on your time at the end of the day.
I’m not mathematically inclined either mate but it’s not too difficult to calculate if you have the number of winners, losers and the odds to calculate the Actual v Expected winners/losers. I recently completed an Open University Statistics course and had help from some maths gurus and it’s opened my eyes a lot.
There is even a CHITEST function in Excel. This post probably explains it better than I ever could but if you are using ‘models’ any service should be able to provide the Chi% figure for their systems otherwise I’d be wary. If you read that, have the data and use ChiTest in Excel it should be a real eye opener for you.
http://www.hoof.demon.co.uk/archie.html
Anyway, hope things pick up and get you back on track, it’s certainly an entertaining read.
Dave
P.S. Can you reveal the details of the New Horse service you were following now you are not ?