Well who didn’t see that happening. I lower my bets and TFA has his best week ever. I really have no luck in this quest. But will not complain with the profit. I missed out on $6,000 profit by lowering bets and another $4,000 from Jonno missing the NFL upload this week. That’s an extra $10,000 I should have made this week. But in regards to TFA, I stand by my decision and believe it was the right thing to do.
It’s Melbourne Cup day today and it’s tradition for every Australian to bet on the big race, my tradition for the past 5 years has been to not bet on it. The articles making the rounds today are about how Tom Waterhouse is pissed that he could not get on at fixed odds on his mummy’s horse to win $1,000,000. This is off course a great headline grabbing approach from who I am slowly realising is just a very good marketer. My major complaint is that I can’t even get on for $1 at his book on the same horse for even worse prices then he wanted.
Onto the week that has been a great relief to me. Still a long way to go but I did feel like a one armed guy hanging over a cliff with a really itchy nose. This week has graciously allowed a bird to poop on the itch, making it go away for now. In the Tennis we had one big win, finally I bet against Nadal and he lost. Over the last 12 bets I have lost over $8k going against him, but won $4,000 of that back. All the other bets did not fare as well and the total profit for the week was $3,800.
The NBL totals model had been doing poorly during my trip and I knew it would be difficult to place bets before I returned so stayed away. Since I have got back it has been incredible. This week alone it made another $7,400. The issue is that it is not a big sport in Australia and I am betting between $2-4k on these totals, I have already had one account closed because of this and I have to spread my bets over 3-4 books at very poor lines. Not sure it’s going to be feasible to keep betting on this. The line bets are easier to place but made a $240 loss this week. This was also the first NBA week and the normally brilliant totals have started terribly. $5,300 down on them and only a $1,200 profit on the H2H bets. Hopefully it picks up soon.
NHL lost $900 this week and Jonno forgot to upload the NFL tips on Sunday after a big wedding and silly me went back and looked at what the results would have been. I am in quite a hole with NFL and the $4,000 I would have made would have helped. Can’t be too upset as Sportpunter is the only service who has actually made me a profit in the last 3 and a bit years.
Another loss of $500 on the golf and I am now desperate for my second win.
Onto Soccer and this week we finally got some good results. Newcastle beating Chelsea was the big one as it was a Elite bet and multiple TFA bets. Combo managed to lose $175 for the week but TFA had some other great wins and made $12,465, it doesn’t make up for even last weeks losses, but it was a very welcome relief. Football Elite also had a few other wins and made a very welcome $4,900. Skeeve went against TFA in his multi and I trust TFA much more then Skeeve so decided to skip that bet, a wise move indeed. Turning what should have been another losing week into a $700 profit.
So we finally have stopped the rot. Another replica of this week can see us into profit for the year, but I wont be counting any chickens just yet. I’ll be ecstatic if I can be under a $10,000 loss by next week and in profit by the new year. Santa if you read this you know what I want for Christmas. Onto next week.
Total profit for the week was $24,294.44
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $1,087,478.00
Profit/Loss: $(19,476.38)
POT: -1.79%
Bets Placed: 1,795
Won: 631
Lost: 1128
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 35
Winning %: 35.9%
Total profit per day: $168,045.71 / 1224 = $137.29
Total Turnover: $10,837,307.53
Total ROI: 1.55%
ATP – SP $139,681.00 $11,731.63 8.4%
week profit/loss: 3789.32
FB Elite $36,000.00 $(150.00) -0.4%
week profit/loss: 4920
Skeeve $36,040.00 $(12,592.60) -34.9%
week profit/loss: 759.20
Combo FI $26,090.00 $(3,780.00) -14.5%
week profit/loss: -175
TFA $223,171.00 $(39,760.50) -17.8%
week profit/loss: 12,465
NFL Totals $45,019.00 $(14,213.21) -31.6%
week profit/loss: 837.20
NP Win $9,623.00 $(5,030.00) -52.3%
week profit/loss: -500
NHL Totals $22,181.00 $1,586.83 7.2%
week profit/loss: -877.61
NBL Totals $18,290.00 $13,110.77 71.7%
week profit/loss: 7382.34
NBL Line $11,994.00 $4,329.59 36.1%
week profit/loss: -239.14
NBA Totals $11,970.00 $(5,334.97) -44.6%
week profit/loss: -5334.97
NBA H2H $6,387.00 $1,268.10 19.9%
week profit/loss: 1268.10