This is a 2 week review as the Internet on the ship was just to poor to bother, and the results did not make me want to write anything. A killer of a fortnight and I honestly have no faith in the Soccer models at all. Without AFL to prop up the losses, things have taken a massive downturn in the last few months. A $70,000 loss over the last 2 months is something I have never seen before and I know and you know how stupid I was for betting so heavily on Soccer. But do I compound the mistake by changing staking now? I think it’s a little late for that. The models are either going to hit their bank and I will need to stop, or they are going to turn around and break even. There are 1 or 2 that I should drop right now, but will kick myself more if they turn around. At the moment it just feels like every weekend I am handing money back to the bookies much quicker then I can ever make it.
Not one model made a profit in the past fortnight, so can’t start with any positive news, it is all bad. Tennis lost $250 last night, as I have now returned home and am able to place bets, I have saved around $6,000 over the last few weeks by not betting it. NFL lost $2,600 on the weekend and this model once again is picking nothing but unders and not doing well. Nics Picks has also continued his poor run and lost a further $1,600. It seems I also saved a heap on the NBL totals which I will be starting this weekend, but lost even more by not following the NHL totals which have started the year very well. If that was the end of it then it wouldn’t be so bad, but as always, we need to add in the soccer results.
FB Elite lost $550, Combo FI had a shocker and lost $4,150. Skeeve once again was even worse at tipping then a monkey flinging poo at a dartboard, but I managed to miss his multi’s this week as my Internet disconnected as I was trying to place them, I just wished it had happened earlier when I was placing the TFA bets as well. Skeeve lost $1,050, but that should be a $5,000 loss. I have been lucky to miss a few bets and my results are far better then the official results. My thoughts on TFA are inching closer and closer towards how I feel about the Skeeve service. The past few weeks the bets have not even been close to winning, which makes me very nervous, when you have over $3,000 on a team and they lose 4-0 or 4-1 and this is happening on the majority of bets you need to really think if the model is broken. We keep coming back to the fact that the home bets this season have gone crazy and this might just be pure variance, but it doesn’t feel right for some reason. With less then 2/3rds of the bank remaining, a change is required quickly or the model I had hoped would return me large sums will be on the waste pile. I realise that we saw the same pattern (just not as bad) last season, with Soccer going very poor until January and then in the space of a few months it made a massive comeback. But if it doesn’t perform during this period again, it will be a massive disaster. TFA lost $14,400 this fortnight.
Very happy to be home, but very worried about what’s in stall for my betting future.
Total loss for the week was $21,645.12
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $903,345.00
Profit/Loss: $(29,394.66)
POT: -3.25%
Bets Placed: 1,455
Won: 530
Lost: 906
Half Payout: 1
Refunded: 18
Winning %: 36.9%
Total profit per day: $158,127.43 / 1210 = $130.68
Total Turnover: $10,653,174.53
Total ROI: 1.48%
ATP – SP $123,831.00 $9,869.01 8.0%
week profit/loss: -247.94
FB Elite $16,000.00 $(3,880.00) -24.3%
week profit/loss: -540
Skeeve $34,800.00 $(13,351.80) -38.4%
week profit/loss: -1050
Combo FI $16,590.00 $(2,430.00) -14.6%
week profit/loss: -4151.50
TFA $163,921.00 $(32,405.50) -19.7%
week profit/loss: -14,429.50
NFL Totals $38,798.00 $(12,774.35) -32.9%
week profit/loss: -2601.18
NP Win $8,373.00 $(3,780.00) -45.1%
week profit/loss: -1625