The run of profitable weeks has ended at 5. It also coincides with the first losing AFL week in ages. My hope is that if one model doesn’t perform then another will pick up the slack, but at the moment I don’t have many reliable ones. A really scary time for the portfolio as we are now heading into a heavily skewed period towards soccer betting, something that has not proven itself yet. I also welcomed back the NFL totals model and was even present at the Dallas Cowboys game for the first round. I’ve been lucky enough to catch an MLB and NFL game on this trip, wish I was staying a month longer to complete the set and see an NHL and NBA game, but i’ll just have to come back on another holiday for those. Such a tough life at times.
My view of the Cowboys game
Will be a quick review as I need some sleep before my flight to Vegas. As mentioned earlier, AFL had a losing week with a $1,500 loss. ATP lost $1,000 thanks again to the incredible run Nadal has been on. I know the model is not coming up with the right bets against him, but I’m not here to judge something that has made me such consistent profit. OTP NRL had a poor week losing $1,000 and Nics picks is yet to find a winner for me and lost a further $400 this week. MLB had a steady week with $2,000 profit.
My other nosebleed section view
Onto Skeeve and I’m seriously getting worried now. A massive loss of $5,400 this week and I find myself in a giant hole after just a few weeks. This feels worse then last years start and the emails that are sent out do him no favors as instead of just stating the obvious, he finds a number of excuses. The fact is he doesn’t have a grasp of the league at the moment and it is costing members. He is moving to lower stakes from this week but it’s a few weeks too late. I keep saying that things will turn around, but I’m starting to ask myself if they really will. It’s no good repeating last years results and breaking even, I need soccer models that produce profit.
TFA started this week with a few bets and a profit of $3,000. The big bet went against skeeve’s pick and won easily (4-1). One point for Graeme’s modelling skills and our computer overlords. Getting odds was an issue but won’t worry yet as there was only a bet on 3 teams for me and with 100 members betting on these matches, the odds were bound to come in, add in my ever diminishing list of bookies and I was lucky to get close.
So that’s the first loss in a while and I’m hoping it’s a blip on the radar and things go back to normal in the coming months, would love to arrive back home in OZ with over $60,000 profit. Only Soccer can get me there, so hoping that my visit to Vegas can ignite my luck in regards to Soccer. Will once again be a roller coaster ride. But that’s why you love reading this blog, well that, and you also want to see me fail.
Side note: Rick Nielsen of Cheap Trick stopped me in Dallas today to compliment me on having such a hot girlfriend and then asked me how he would get one before talking about his daughters and giving me a huge hug. Very strange.
Total loss for the week was $3,503.91
Stats Year 4
Total bet amount: $572,399.00
Profit/Loss: $34,316.31
POT: 6.00%
Bets Placed: 803
Won: 343
Lost: 447
Half Payout: 0
Refunded: 13
Winning %: 43.4%
Total profit per day: $221,838.40 / 1168 = $189.93
Total Turnover: $10,322,228.53
Total ROI: 2.15%
AFL H2H – SP $23,585.00 $5,005.20 21.2%
week profit/loss: 470.25
AFL Line – SP $165,040.00 $43,473.64 26.3%
week profit/loss: -1986.08
ATP – SP $106,645.00 $5,155.49 4.8%
week profit/loss: -967.55
FB Elite $5,000.00 $(2,630.00) -52.6%
week profit/loss: 0
Skeeve $14,400.00 $(9,609.60) -66.7%
week profit/loss: -5400
6-22 $350.00 $(350.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -350
7-21 $600.00 $780.00 130.0%
week profit/loss: 780
31-42 $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430
33-41 $600.00 $834.00 139.0%
week profit/loss: 834
TOX $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430
STOY $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430
STOZ $950.00 $430.00 45.3%
week profit/loss: 430
OTP NRL $28,250.00 $5,049.50 17.9%
week profit/loss: -1060
MLB H2H $121,274.00 $(12,558.45) -10.4%
week profit/loss: 1026.33
MLB Totals $86,553.00 $1,085.21 1.3%
week profit/loss: 933.82
NFL Totals $9,499.00 $920.32 9.7%
week profit/loss: 920.32
NP Win $4,378.00 $(4,378.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: -425
NP Place $1,825.00 $419.00 23.0%
week profit/loss: 0
NP trades $600.00 $(600.00) -100.0%
week profit/loss: 0