September has gotten off to a great start. All those August atrocities are long forgotten (NOT), but it is nice to have a winning week again. If I had decided to bet the AFL this week would have been another losing one. The reason I didn’t bet AFL was simple. With no motivation for most teams and huge team changes there simply wasn’t enough data to come up with a reliable number. I feel these type of rounds offer a huge opportunity for those sharp punters that bet based not on numbers but by breaking down the motivations of that one off game. In saying that, the bets could have all won and I would be kicking myself, but they didn’t and I saved myself from a $22,000 loss.
Yesterdays article about trolls must not have been well written as I was sent so many emails saying they would be sad to see my site go. I had to explain I was talking about a different blog that was shutting down and they would have to continue to deal with me for many years to come.
The big news is the upcoming review into online gambling laws which has moved from trying to protect the punter to just shutting down any international sites. Unless action is taken by the Aussie punters, we will no longer be able to bet at Pinnacle or other off shore sites and as we can’t bet with the Australian books, it will mean we can’t bet at all. It does not look good for any punter who might be able to break even or god forbid make a tiny profit from a hobby they love. The bookies love that we are too lazy to make much noise about how they treat their customers, so over the coming weeks if you don’t make a racket about this you will have no one to blame but yourself. It’s time to be heard and get minimum bet laws passed for all sports.
Onto this weeks results and as mentioned above there were no bets on the AFL, saving me from a $22,000 loss. The NRL also had its last regular season round, but the motivation was there for most of these teams. The model made a great comeback and won a massive $7,700. MLB made a tiny $150 and I’m hoping it can get back to its early season form.
Dailyprofit members had a field day. They were told not to bet the AFL (which are still recorded in the official results), but the NRL line bets went 7-1 for a huge return of 25% of their banks. We also have the NFL to look forward to in the coming weeks and that is a very strong model.
September starts with a win and I’m hoping it can continue on and bring me back into profit for the year. We are only 2 months into year 6 and the swings have been massive. With the Soccer betting only days away things are likely to get even wilder. I’ve also updated my total profit and loss graph and you can see that on the left hand side.
Total Profit for the week was $8,323.92
[mc4wp_form]
Stats Year 6
Total bet amount: $922,706.00
Profit/Loss: $(5,703.55)
POT: -0.62%
Bets Placed: 761
Won: 260
Lost: 356
Half Payout: 10
Refunded: 135
Winning %: 42.2%
Total profit per day: $380,354.59 / 1896 = $200.60
Total Turnover: $22,808,738.30
Total ROI: 1.67%
AFL H2H $75,090.00 $(185.47) -0.2%
week profit/loss: 0
AFL Line $262,522.00 $8,219.15 3.1%
week profit/loss: 0
NRL $69,746.00 $1,659.69 2.4%
week profit/loss: 7717.92
MLB Totals $333,973.00 $(5,793.67) -1.7%
week profit/loss: 149.75
Jason Kelly $4,590.00 $(4,515.00) -98.4%
week profit/loss: -250
Betswot $2,925.00 $(236.80) -8.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Odds Pushed Out $11,500.00 $351.00 3.1%
week profit/loss: 0
Personal $157,203.00 $(9,498.31) -6.0%
week profit/loss: -96.25
Mistake $2,500.00 $2,563.25 102.5%
week profit/loss: 802.48