Lets start the Soccer season review with the one model I have chosen not to follow this upcoming season.
XX Draws is a service by Cassini of the excellent Green all Over blog. The general idea behind the service is that the draw is an overlooked bet by many and therefore the price is usually above what it should be and offers value at times.
The service has evolved over the years and now has 3 main systems which are then broken down further into many other systems.
The 3 main systems are the XX Draws Classic, The XX Draws Extended and the XX Bundesliga Draws. The other systems then use these bets to also bet on the following total goal markets (U1.5, U2.5 and U3.5) and also on the Halftime 0-0 correct score. This results in a total of 15 different systems you can choose to follow.
These were my thoughts at the start of the season
The reason I like this system is simple, people hate draws and no one ever bets on them, but they happen a hell of a lot, this means for a lot of games the prices available are great value. This is something that has been noted by Jonno at Sportpunter a number of times, people hate to back the unders in most sports as they want to see lots of goals/points. This makes backing unders very profitable in the right circumstances.
My goals for the year were as follows
I am following the XX Draws and the Extended draws as well as Under 2.5 for each system at $500 per bet. Going off the only stats I can (last years results – I know, I know) I am hoping to make a bit over 100 points of profit. So anything over $50,000 will be amazing. These picks come out very early in the week and allow me to place the bets whenever I like, and as I have a hell of a lot to do on Saturdays I usually finish these on a friday night. They are all bets in Top flight leagues so getting on is a non issue. Long losing runs are to be expected with the draws, but the Under 2.5 should see some stability.
The goal was 100 points profit and these were based of results in the prospectus on the XX draws website. I was following a total of 4 models.
In total I paid £99($147) and made a profit of $273.50. A total profit after fees of $90.50
This image from Cassini’s blog shows his recorded results for the year for all 15 services.
My results were a little different.
XX Draws $70,500.00 $(12,137.50) -17.2%
XX Draws Under 2.5 $70,500.00 $(2,720.00) -3.9%
XX Extended $155,500.00 $12,831.00 8.3%
XX Extended Under 2.5 $155,194.00 $2,300.00 1.5%
We will first compare the XX Draws Classic selections.
There were 141 selections on the Draw and according to the official results a loss of 21.85 units. My results after the same number of bets were a loss of 24.275. A fairly close amount. The reason this is close is because when you have a loss then it does not matter what odds you received.
The official XX Draws Classic U2.5 was a loss of 1.19 units. My lose was 5.44. A bit more of a difference.
Now where I have problems and the reason I am not following next season can be seen on my extended results, where I made a healthy profit.
The official results for the Extended draws was a total profit of 32.50 units after 310 bets. My return was 25.662. 7 units worse off. The official results for the Extended U2.5 was 12.45 units. My actual return was 4.6 units, which is 7.85 units worse.
In total over the 4 services I was 21.358 units worse off then the official results. At my bet size of $500 that is a discrepancy of $10,679.
I made a total profit after fees of $90 for the year, whereas the official results made $10,808 after fees. A staggering difference. What this means is that if I was to follow it this season, the models would need to produce close to 21 units of profit before I broke even (This math isn’t right, but you can understand what I mean). It’s hard enough giving bookies the edge they already have, but when you also have to start with a further disadvantage then it makes things very difficult. The same issue was a big reason I stopped following the so called best horse racing service. Each month I needed to reach 30 units “Official” profit to break even.
So why is this happening?
It’s simple really, the quoted odds that are being recorded are not achievable for someone following the tips. I bet the moment these came out and always found the best price which easily beat closing prices on the majority of matches. There was talk about this earlier in the year and Cassini said to put up an extra 5c on Betfair and it would usually get matched. I tested this assumption for 2 months and although a few bets were matched, the vast majority were not, as my $500 ask actually pushed the prices down further and by the start of the match the odds had been driven down even further, resulting in me getting even worse odds. The times my bets did get matched, it would have been beneficial to wait as the closing odds were higher then what I was matched at.
I was unaware of how these results were being recorded until midway through the season. This is a major issue for me as only a few of the tipsters I follow do a good job of recording achievable odds. Without a reasonable chance of getting the advised prices, the majority of tipsters are actual at best a break even service, this is something I have had to learn over the last 3 years.
I’m really disappointed in these results and my conclusion, as I really thought this model had a great idea, but without real world achievable numbers to back it up, I can not throw more of my money towards it. It also doesn’t help that I really like Cassini, in all my dealings with him he has been a genuine great guy, and to be honest that is why it took me this long to write this post. I was almost not going to write it, but I feel it is my job to be as honest as possible on this blog. At Christmas last year we even exchanges gifts, some Port from me and a very nice contribution to my bike from Cassini. Hopefully my appraisal of his system doesn’t affect that relationship.
There are other reason that helped me decide to not follow the XX Draws this season. Firstly these bets coincided with other bets on the same game, so on some games I would be betting on all three results, a long term losing option. The other reason is that TFA is working on a draw system, and after his results the past few years (which are at achievable odds), I will be testing these out as long as they don’t overlap other bets.
What I would say could restore some faith in the XX Draws system is for the bets to be proofed somewhere. That would give a clear view of what is really possible and would make a lot of criticism about the service I have heard from others go away.
So that’s my take on the XX Draws and the reasons I have decided to stop following them.
UPDATE: After talking to Cassini via email, he told me it had been noted before that he does not take BF commission into consideration when recording his odds. I do not understand this at all. The BF commission is a real cost of between 2-5% for all of us. We are continuing our conversation and he has asked what I feel the best way to record his odds for next season would be.